Iraq, Politics, Information

The Quit-Iraq Time-Travelers, (New York Post)…Ralph Peters
May 29, 2008.

Whenever retreat-now activists or their favored presidential aspirant are confronted with our progress in Iraq, their stock reply is, “Al Qaeda wasn’t in Iraq in 2003.”

It’s as if, in June 1944, critics had argued from facts frozen in June 1939. (“Why invade Normandy? Hitler’s content with Czechoslovakia.”)

In the course of a war – any war – the situation changes, enemies evolve and goals shift. A war to preserve the Union becomes a war to end slavery; a war to defeat one set of totalitarian systems empowers a new network of tyrannies. It’s a rare war whose end can be forecast neatly at its outset.

Highlights the need for for an improved method of communicating facts and information to include the expected long and short term indicators of success.

Iran: Signal Noise Ratio

Iran Gulf Buildup Not Aimed At Challenging U.S., Cosgriff Says
(Bloomberg.com)…Tony Capaccio, May 28, 2008

Iran’s build-up of its naval forces in the Persian Gulf remains consistent and doesn’t suggest any short-term intent to confront the U.S. Navy or disrupt oil traffic, the head of U.S. naval forces in the Gulf said today.

Don’t `Hyperventilate’ … Cosgriff urged the public, including oil-industry analysts, not to “hyperventilate” over such encounters.

“Put it into context — you should be able to see the difference between something really extraordinary and something where it looks like they got a little close and nothing really happened,” he said. “Don’t get hyperventilated over these things.”

Great example of applying the variation principle. “Something really extraordinary” is a conceptual reference to a “Signal” or special cause of variation as opposed to normal (nothing unusual) common cause of variation.

THAAD Theatre High Altitude Area Defense Missile System, USA

1st THAAD Unit Activates At Fort Bliss, (El Paso Times)…Chris Roberts, May 29, 2008, Pg. 1B

…The system faced funding cuts in the 1990s when it missed targets during test firings. But after a redesign, THAAD has been consistently successful — so successful that the Army recently added two more batteries to its original plans, which called for four batteries.

President Reagan’s concept of a strategic defense initiative that was referred to as “Star Wars” was received with a great deal of skepticism at the time. Appears technology is catching up with the concept.

Army: Future Combat "Capabilities"

Top Army General Praises New Cannon In Minn., Part Of Wider Army Weapons Modernization Plan, (Minneapolis Star Tribune)…Associated Press, May 24, 2008

The Army’s top general said he saw the future when looking at a new artillery vehicle that can hit a target over the horizon while remaining lighter, faster and more fuel efficient than the vehicle it will replace.

New weapon was developed as part of the Army’s Future Combat System (FCS). FCS results in improved capabilities to include the types of technologies that can be applied in non-military applications that may help prevent conflict.

FCS illustrates the evolution of the arms race — that likely started when the first caveman threw a rock (first projectile?) at an adversary.

Reinforces the need to build peace-fighting capabilities to help prevent the need for war-fighting capabilities.

France: Military Shift – Signal

Go-It-Alone France Shifts Military Stance, (Washington Post)…Molly Moore, May 25, 2008 , Pg. 17

…After decades of a go-it-alone military strategy, France has become one of Europe’s greatest advocates of an emerging European Union defense force and is considering allowing French forces back into the NATO command structure after a 43-year absence.

Conceptually, change represents a “Signal” … e.g., special cause of variation.

Iraq: Drop-off in Violence – Signal or Noise?

Iraq Violence Falls To Four-Year Low, U.S. Says, Los Angeles Times, May 26, 2008, ..Alexandra Zavis

The U.S. military said Sunday that the number of attacks by militants in the last week dropped to a level not seen in Iraq since March 2004.

Understanding the basics of variation provides a little more insight on assessing results communicated with numbers. A Signal may represent “special” cause; Noise refers to common cause.

A quick self-assessment on determining signal vs. noise.

Whole Government Approach – State

State Dept. begins to identify diplomats for Iraq duty. USA Today, May 27, 2008, Washington (AP).

The State Department has begun to identify diplomats who could be forced to serve in Iraq next year unless enough volunteers come forward to fill about 300 positions, the Associated Press has learned.

Similar to me on the previous posting on planning for auditors. Radical change requires a long-term commitment of resources as well as a “whole government” approach.

Fighting in Afghanistan: Soldier’s View

Breaking Point, (Baltimore Sun)…David Wood, May 25, 2008, Pg. 15

In the dying sunlight, the day’s heat radiates from a farm compound’s baked adobe walls, which enclose Marines slumped wearily against their rucksacks. Here in southern Afghanistan, where the men of the 24th Marine Expeditionary Unit are battling Taliban insurgents, life comes in a simple equation: There are men out there who will kill you, unless you kill them first.

First hand account of what it’s like from he Soldier’s perspective.

Ex Press Aid … Bush Misled … Really?

Ex-Press Aide Writes That Bush Misled U.S. On Iraq
Washington Post, May 28, 2008, Pg. 1, …Michael D. Shear

Former White House press secretary Scott McClellan writes in a new memoir that the Iraq war was sold to the American people with a sophisticated “political propaganda campaign” led by President Bush and aimed at “manipulating sources of public opinion” and “downplaying the major reason for going to war.”

After the attacks of September 11, 2001, there were three general courses of action available to the administration: maintain/sustain the status quo, incremental change or radical.

Maintaining/sustaining the status quo did not prevent 911 or likely the next 911. Access to weapons of mass effects by the usual suspects increases the risk to the U.S. of doing the same thing we’ve always done.

The higher the degree of change, the higher the risk as well as the rewards. I think most people could agree that war with Iraq could be classified as a radical change wether you agree or not with the decision. From this perspective, no one should have been misled of the risks associated with a major change.

Going to war? Take some auditors with you

Pentagon Auditors Cite Scant Staff, Wall Street Journal, May 28, 2008,
Pg. 2 …Yochi J. Dreazen

Defense Department auditors said they have been unable to oversee tens of billions of dollars in military spending because of manpower shortfalls, leaving the Pentagon “more vulnerable to fraud, waste, and abuse.”

Probably not a bad idea to include financial management, planning and oversight as an integral part of the operational plan.