Iraq: Drop-off in Violence – Signal or Noise?

Iraq Violence Falls To Four-Year Low, U.S. Says, Los Angeles Times, May 26, 2008, ..Alexandra Zavis

The U.S. military said Sunday that the number of attacks by militants in the last week dropped to a level not seen in Iraq since March 2004.

Understanding the basics of variation provides a little more insight on assessing results communicated with numbers.  A Signal may represent “special” cause; Noise refers to common cause.

A quick self-assessment on determining  signal vs. noise.