Terrorism: Consensus on Next Steps

New Consensus On Terrorism
(Washington Times)…John McLaughlin, Oct 6, 2008.  One of the major tasks for our next president is repairing the frayed consensus on how to deal with terrorism.

John McLaughlin is a senior fellow at the Johns Hopkins School of Advanced International Studies and served as deputy director and acting director of Central Intelligence from 2000-2004.

Taiwan, China, U.S. Diplomacy

Bush Should Keep His Word On Taiwan
(Wall Street Journal)…Dan Blumenthal, Aaron Friedberg, Randall Schriver and Ashley J. Tellis, July 19, 2008, Pg. 9

In 2001, President Bush made a bold and principled decision to offer Taiwan a range of military equipment for its security. In 2008, as he prepares to leave office, the president seems to have reneged on that commitment.

The People’s Republic of China has been expanding its military capabilities at a rapid pace.

The policy of not offending China, no matter what the costs, does not serve U.S. interests in the Taiwan Straits. First, it undermines Mr. Ma’s ability to deal with Beijing from a position of strength, and to that extent it undermines the common objective of peaceful reunification, should the Taiwanese desire it.

Denying Taiwan the minimal capabilities required to cope with China’s massive military buildup also increases the burdens on U.S. forces if they should ever intervene in a future cross-straits confrontation.

Iran and U.S. Diplomacy

U.S. Talks With Iran Exemplify Bush’s New Approaches
(Washington Post)…Dan Eggen

With his moves last week involving Iraq, Iran and North Korea, President Bush accelerated a shift toward centrist foreign policies, a change that has cheered Democrats, angered some Republicans and roiled the presidential campaign.

U.S. Is Present, But Iran Nuclear Talks End In Stalemate
(New York Times)…Elaine Sciolino
International talks on Iran’s nuclear ambitions ended in deadlock on Saturday, despite the Bush administration’s decision to reverse policy and send a senior American official to the table for the first time.

Iraq; Reconciliations

Dealing With Insurgents In Iraq, (FNC)…David Piper, July 16, 2008

…These are members of the 101st Airborne and they’re processing Iraqi suspects from the Balad area here in central Iraq. This is reconciliation Iraqi style. These men have simply walked in to this U.S. forward operating base to announce they want no part of the war anymore.

First of all, these men, who have been sponsored by a tribal leader, are read a ceasefire agreement. They then go through the identification process and their biometric data are taken. They are then urged to admit anything they’ve done. If they have charges to answer to, they will later have to appear before an Iraqi judge and he will decide if they are guilty or not. Up until now, the judges seem to have shown leniency in keeping with the new spirit of national unity and haven’t found any of the over 100 men who have come before them guilty. That is the carrot, but there’s also a very large stick.

All these individuals have been warned if they conduct any types of terrorist offences in the future, they’re likely to spend a very long time in the Iraqi jail. The 101st Airborne have had to make up these identification procedures as they go along. It’s helping them build an invaluable database of who’s who in the area and also a powerful tool to find individuals if they re-offend, and combining it with existing intelligence can unearth hidden treasure. As the soldiers slowly processed these individuals, they discovered among them the second and fourth most wanted men they have been after for months. Number two knows he’s a wanted man, but doesn’t know he’s among Balad’s most wanted.

Diplomatic Element of Power; Next 20 yrs

Gates Warns Of Militarized Policy, (Washington Post)…Ann Scott Tyson, July 16, 2008, Pg. 6

Defense Secretary Robert M. Gates warned yesterday against the risk of a “creeping militarization” of U.S. foreign policy, saying the State Department should lead U.S. engagement with other countries, with the military playing a supporting role.

Gates said in a speech that the government’s civilian institutions, especially those with the tasks of diplomacy and development, had been undermanned and underfunded since the end of the Cold War.

Over the next 20 years, Gates predicted, “the most persistent and potentially dangerous threats will come less from emerging ambitious states, than from failing ones that cannot meet the basic needs — much less the aspirations — of their people.”

     

State Department: Smarter power

POST: Match and close. Thomas P.M. Barnett on July 11, 2008

ARTICLE: The State Department Confronts the Synergy Crisis, by Austin Bay, Strategy Page, June 24, 2008

Good and interesting sign. The program is basically what Enterra does in Kurdish Iraq, except we go way beyond matchmaking to actual deal closing with our investment centers.

But the underlying logic in each is the same: jobs are the only exit strategy and jobs are a private-sector function.

Referenced article introduces the State Depatment’s Economic Empowerment in Strategic Regions (EESR) with the aim to leverage internet connectivity in support of economic development.  

Enterra provides systems and processes (see development-in-a-box) that accelerate development and growth.  Similar concept to what Toyota  applied to become one of the  most successful auto manufactures in the world.   Using a sports metaphor, would be similar to applying a proven strategy that would include offensive and defensive playbooks, training plans, etc.

Afghanistan: Trends

A few extracts from articles providing examples on the use of the diplomatic element of national power to gain support for reducing the inflow of fighters from Pakistan.

U.S. Blames Pakistan As Afghanistan Incursions Rise (Wall Street Journal)…Yochi J. Dreazen. U.S. officials have begun blaming Pakistan for Afghanistan’s increasing violence, an escalation in rhetoric that suggests American patience with Pakistan’s new government is rapidly running out.

More Foreign Militants Operating In Pakistan, Joint Chiefs Boss Says. (San Diego Union-Tribune)…Associated Press. More foreign fighters, including al-Qaeda militants, are operating in Pakistan’s tribal areas than in the past, underscoring the need for Pakistan to crack down on insurgent safe havens, the top U.S. military officer said during a visit to the Afghan capital.

Flow Of Foreign Fighters Into Afghanistan Increasing. (FNC)…Jennifer Griffin. In an interview with Fox News, one of his first since becoming the top U.S. commander in Afghanistan 40 days ago, Gen. David McKiernan described his frustration with the rising violence his troops face emanating from Pakistan.

Declaring War

Put War Powers Back Where They Belong
(New York Times)…James A. Baker III and Warren Christopher, July 8, 2008

THE most agonizing decision we make as a nation is whether to go to war.

A bipartisan group that we led, the National War Powers Commission, has unanimously concluded after a year of study that the law purporting to govern the decision to engage in war — the 1973 War Powers Resolution — should be replaced by a new law

Partnership for Iraq

The Wrong Partnership For Iraq, (Washington Post)…Bill Delahunt and Rosa DeLauro, July 8, 2008, Pg. 15

The June 15 editorial ” A Partnership For Iraq” criticized Democrats in Congress for opposing the proposed long-term military agreement between the United States and Iraq that would replace the U.N. mandate under which U.S. forces are fighting. The editorial called the agreement a way of “countering Iran’s attempt to dominate the Middle East.” We have examined this issue for many months and believe that The Post’s position is badly misguided.

…We have proposed an alternative that would serve our interests and those of the Iraqis far better: extending the U.N. mandate in Iraq for six months, as has been done before, so that the new president and Congress can work with Iraq’s leaders to determine the next agreement.

It is time for everyone to slow down. We should extend the U.N. mandate for a short period to maintain the status quo and ultimately turn this issue over to the next president and Congress, who must implement any agreement. Rather than dictating the terms of our long-term relationship with Iraq, such a policy would allow us to work with Iraqis to craft an agreement that includes the carefully coordinated withdrawal of U.S. combat forces that majorities in both countries support. Doing so would also solidify the type of sustainable partnership that the people of the United States and Iraq need and deserve.