The top U.S. negotiator in talks to rid North Korea of nuclear weapons said Tuesday that Pyongyang must agree to a verification of its disarmament activities and that the deal must be put in writing.
…There was far too much of that fear-mongering and spasmodic reaction after Sept. 11, which had the effect of destabilizing the United States almost as much as it did its enemies. The challenge is to understand the adversary so that if an attack comes, the authorities will respond with cool heads and steady aim.
“Mumbai is a worst-case ‘active shooter’ problem,” says a former CIA officer who helped organize a DHS pilot program on the subject last summer for police chiefs. “It had multiple shooters, multiple locations, mobile threats, willingness to fight the first responders and follow-on SWAT/commando units, well-equipped and well-trained operatives, and a willingness to die. Police department commanders in America should be scratching their heads and praying.”
The foreign-policy team President-elect Barack Obama announced Monday is said to be experienced enough to “hit the ground running.” Good thing when it comes to Iran, as time is running short for the new crew to figure out what to do about a nuclear program that seems to have been slowed very little by international efforts to make Tehran play nice.
In private, Israeli officials are ever more blunt in saying they see time running out before Iran’s nuclear potential becomes a nuclear reality that threatens the Jewish state, among others. Once the Obama administration is in place next year, and a new Israeli government takes shape after February elections there, the questions about whether Israel is contemplating military action against Iran will only grow.
With the government of President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad already using price controls on food and energy to stabilize the domestic economy, falling oil prices figure to create lots of new pressures. By one estimate, the Iranian government needs $90-a-barrel oil for its government accounts to break even. The question, then, is when economic pressure might become so great that a nuclear program becomes counterproductive.
…it would be useful for the United States, Europe and other nations to begin establishing the principle that Pakistan and other states that harbor terrorists should not take their sovereignty for granted. In the 21st century, sovereign rights need to be earned.
So if the world is indeed not to be held hostage by non-state actors operating from Pakistan, what can be done?
Rather than simply begging the Indians to show restraint, a better option could be to internationalize the response. Have the international community declare that parts of Pakistan have become ungovernable and a menace to international security. Establish an international force to work with the Pakistanis to root out terrorist camps in Kashmir as well as in the tribal areas …
Robert Kagan, a senior associate at the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace, writes a monthly column for The Post.
As for specific trouble spots:
*Come Jan. 20, Obama will own the Iraq war just as surely as Richard Nixon owned the Vietnam War in 1969. If progress turns into defeat, his presidency will surely be undermined. The entire team will recognize the political and international implications of this, but Obama has given Gates, who oversaw the successful strategy of surging more troops into Iraq, the new mission of bringing them home.
Obama campaigned on a pledge to remove U.S. troops within 16 months, but at his news conference Monday, he repeated a Bush line that he would listen to commanders on the ground, a wise step. The Bush administration has already signed an agreement for U.S. troops to be out of cities by June 30 and out of Iraq by the end of 2011, but the uneven progress in training Iraqis to take over will make the first deadline particularly difficult to attain, with huge implications.
*Afghanistan will continue on the present military path, with several thousand extra U.S. troops already scheduled to deploy there. The Bush administration attempted to win Afghan hearts and minds but was not very deft. Gates and Jones have advocated different kinds of outreach and more effective reconstruction.
*Candidate Obama pushed vigorous, high-level diplomacy to halt Iran’s nuclear program even as Clinton suggested that it would be naive. As his top diplomat, Clinton’s past dismissiveness could give any talks more credibility, while the more hawkish Clinton, Gates and Jones would keep the military option credible. None of this answers the hard question of what happens if diplomacy reaches a dead end.
Whether to attack Iran — or give Israel the green light to do so — would undoubtedly generate the sort of “vigorous debate” and “strong opinions” within the White House that Obama says he welcomes.
North Korea, one of the world’s most shuttered states, pulled the curtains tighter Monday, drastically cutting South Korean access to a joint industrial complex in the border city of Kaesong.
NATO is expected to stall Georgia’s ambition to join the Western Alliance today in what represents a diplomatic victory for Russia.
The U.S. Pacific Command, which controls American forces from the west coast of North America to the east coast of Africa, has fashioned a subtle revision in its strategy of reassuring friends and deterring potential enemies, notably China and North Korea.
*Officers of the Army, Navy, Marine Corps and Air Force in the Asia-Pacific region, some of whom apparently believe that conflict with China is likely, maybe inevitable. “The command wants to make sure that everyone understands that it is not inevitable,” said one officer.
“Deterring conflict on the Korean Peninsula continues to be a priority,” the strategy says. It points to a “maturing U.S.-China military-to-military relationship” while acknowledging that “tension remains across the Taiwan Strait.”
The revised strategy calls for a “whole of government approach,” asserting that security in the Asia-Pacific region “demands a high degree of coordination, integration, and unity of effort” within the Pentagon and across other departments and agencies.
An independent commission has concluded that terrorists will most likely carry out an attack with biological, nuclear or other unconventional weapons somewhere in the world in the next five years unless the United States and its allies act urgently to prevent that.
Tourism is shut off and trade greatly restricted as Pyongyang fulfills a threat and leaves the nation further isolated.
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