Cost of War … two sides of the issue

EDITORIAL: The Price Of War? Obscuring the debate with fuzzy math.
(Washington Times)…Chris Duquette, May 9, 2008, pg. 21

Editorial provided a counter argument to economist Joseph Stiglitz, author of the book: “The Three-Trillion Dollar War”, that the war is the cause of our recession, contributed to the increase in the cost of war, and added to our national debt.

Editorial provides more facts on the debate: Rise in oil prices can be attributed to global demand and the weakening dollar. We are not in a recession as defined as two straight quarters of negative economic growth , and regarding debt, relative to an annual U.S. GDP of $14 trillion, the war is not unaffordable.

Monitoring Progress – Terrorism Index

ARTICLE: The Terrorism Index, September/October 2007

In the third Terrorism Index, more than 100 of America’s most respected foreign-policy experts see a world that is growing more dangerous, a national security strategy in disrepair, and a war in Iraq that is alarmingly off course.

A source on information for assessing progress on the global war on terror. Refer you also to my posted page on Prediction Markets.

Wild Cards – National Power

ARTICLE: Where The Wild Cards Are (Washington Post)…David Ignatius, May 8, 2008
Pg. 23

The potentially transforming events in the 2008 campaign are matters of war and peace. Both may be in play between now and November, in ways that add extra volatility to the presidential race. Let’s start with war: The United States is already fighting two of them, in Iraq and Afghanistan. But judging from recent statements by administration officials, there is also a small, but growing, chance of conflict with Iran.

The 2008 campaign has been so mesmerizing that it’s easy to forget what’s going on out in the real world that could disrupt, once again, the certitudes of the pollsters and strategists. The campaign in recent weeks has focused on pocketbook issues because of worries about a deep recession. But as these economic anxieties fade a bit, we are likely to return to the ground zero of the Middle East, and to the themes of war and peace that will be interwoven through the remainder of this campaign.

North Korea – Abdication?

ARTICLE: Bush’s North Korea Nuclear Abdication
(Wall Street Journal)…John R. Bolton, May 8, 2008, Pg. 15

Despite rising Capitol Hill opposition to its North Korea policy, the Bush administration continues to find new and imaginative ways to accommodate Pyongyang’s sensitivities. Meanwhile, the administration’s Democratic congressional allies are urgently pushing to waive the Glenn Amendment, which bars essentially all U.S. economic and military aid to the North.

Mr. Bolton, a senior fellow at the American Enterprise Institute, is the author of “Surrender Is Not an Option: Defending America at the United Nations” (Simon & Schuster/Threshold Editions, 2007).

Application of SMART Power is challenging. One one side are advocates that are optimistic that dialogue and negotiation will lead to positive change. On the other hand, you have those that look at the history and take any promised change from NK with a great deal of skepticism and mistrust.

U.S. vs. Russia – Georgian Province

ARTICLE: A Warning Shot From Moscow? By Anne Applebaum, Washington Post, May 6, 2008 , Pg. 19

In the Georgian Province of Abkhazia, a Possible Flashpoint for a New War

A few key points from the article:

Russian news agency ITAR-TASS declared that the government of Georgia was about to invade Abkhazia,

Abkhazia is a province of Georgia that declared its independence in 1992. A small war followed, Georgia and Abkhazia maintain an uneasy stalemate,

Russia, is Abkhazia’s closest military, economic and political ally and has a long-term interest in the destabilization of pro-American, pro-Western, pro-NATO Georgia.

Thus, when the Russian news agency announces that Georgia is about to invade Abkhazia, it may mean that Georgia really is about to invade Abkhazia. But it might also mean, as everyone in the region understands, that Russia is about to invade Georgia — as a “preemptive strike,” of course.

The timing couldn’t be worse. . Between now and January, the current president is a lame duck: Could he make any credible response to a Russian invasion of Abkhazia, should such a thing happen?

Of course, from another perspective, the timing couldn’t be better: If you wanted to attack an American ally, or if you just wanted to destabilize and unnerve an American ally, wouldn’t this be the perfect moment? Perhaps if the Russians don’t take the opportunity, someone else will.

U.S. Response to Russian Troop Movements

ARTICLE: Georgia: U.S. Criticizes Russian Troop Movements
(New York Times)…Reuters , May 7, 2008

The Bush administration accused Russia of acting provocatively against Georgia by moving troops to the breakaway region of Abkhazia and shooting down a remotely piloted aerial vehicle, increasing the risk of armed confrontation. A White House spokeswoman, Dana Perino, urged Russia to restate its support for Georgia’s sovereignty, and Georgia to show restraint.

U.S Strike on Iran – 50/50?

ARTICLE: Is It Jaw-Jaw Or War-War? (San Francisco Chronicle)…Patrick J. Buchanan, Creators Syndicate Inc.Wednesday, May 7, 2008

Is war with Iran inevitable, even imminent? Or is peace at hand? From the public diplomacy of the administration, either conclusion may be reached.

“To jaw-jaw is always better than to war-war,” said Winston Churchill in 1954, whose career often contradicted his wise counsel.

NK Policy – More Opposition

ARTICLE” Bush’s N. Korea Policy Draws Right Jab
(Washington Times)…David R. Sands, May 4, 2008

Conservative critics of the Bush administration’s North Korea policy — including former top security officials from the president’s first term — say they are not assuaged by the administration’s latest move to toughen the terms of a deal to end Pyongyang’s nuclear-weapons programs.

Critics of the proposed policy changes contend that concessions are synonymous with allowing North Korea a win in its Cold War with the West.

Second Aircraft Carrier to Gulf

ARTICLE: New U.S. Carrier In Gulf A ‘Reminder’ To Iran: Gates (Reuters.com)…David Morgan, Reuters, April 29, 2008
The U.S. Navy has temporarily added a second aircraft carrier in the Gulf as a “reminder” to Iran, but this was not an escalation of American forces in the region, U.S. Defense Secretary Robert Gates said on Tuesday.

Navy Adm. Mike Mullen, chairman of the U.S. Joint Chiefs of Staff, said last week that the Pentagon had military options it could consider against Tehran but stressed that the United States would continue to rely on diplomatic and economic methods to address its concerns.

Reinforces what Secretary of Defense referrs to as “Smart” power.

New Deal – N. Korea

ARTICLE: White House Revises N. Korea Nuke Deal (Washington Times)…Nicholas Kralev, April 25, 2008, Pg. 1

The Bush administration is renegotiating a tentative deal with North Korea on a declaration of its nuclear activities to include better verification provisions, after the agreement upset some on Capitol Hill and even in the administration, officials said yesterday.

On April 8, 2008 the Bush administration changed the requirements on N. Korea from requiring them to acknowledge their nuclear related activities to just acknowledging U.S. concerns. This change, referred to as the Singapore Agreement, was criticized by some members of Congress and was unlikely to be approved – especially after the recent disclosure of N.K involvement with the Syrian nuclear facility that Israel destroyed on September 6, 2007.

U Bet? Will N.K. make the changes necessary to be removed from the list of state sponsors of terrorism before President Bush leaves office?