U.S. vs. Russia – Georgian Province

ARTICLE: A Warning Shot From Moscow? By Anne Applebaum, Washington Post, May 6, 2008 , Pg. 19

In the Georgian Province of Abkhazia, a Possible Flashpoint for a New War

A few key points from the article:

Russian news agency ITAR-TASS declared that the government of Georgia was about to invade Abkhazia,

Abkhazia is a province of Georgia that declared its independence in 1992. A small war followed, Georgia and Abkhazia maintain an uneasy stalemate,

Russia, is Abkhazia’s closest military, economic and political ally and has a long-term interest in the destabilization of pro-American, pro-Western, pro-NATO Georgia.

Thus, when the Russian news agency announces that Georgia is about to invade Abkhazia, it may mean that Georgia really is about to invade Abkhazia. But it might also mean, as everyone in the region understands, that Russia is about to invade Georgia — as a “preemptive strike,” of course.

The timing couldn’t be worse. . Between now and January, the current president is a lame duck: Could he make any credible response to a Russian invasion of Abkhazia, should such a thing happen?

Of course, from another perspective, the timing couldn’t be better: If you wanted to attack an American ally, or if you just wanted to destabilize and unnerve an American ally, wouldn’t this be the perfect moment? Perhaps if the Russians don’t take the opportunity, someone else will.