Category: Intl Security

China – Global Power in 40-70 yrs?

China debate, Inside the Ring, Washington Times, by Bill Gertz, May 16, 2008

Former Deputy Defense Secretary John Hamre says a “raging” debate is under way in Chinese academic circles over Beijiing’s power and influence and when to declare Beijing a world leader. 
 
 Mr. Hamre said one academic cast the debate as “is China going to be the tail of the ox, or the head of rooster?”

The former deputy defense secretary is betting China will stay on track to be a rooster head in Asia and “inspirational leader in Africa and South America.” It could be a global power in 40 to 70 years.

China – Global Power in 40-70 yrs?

China debate, Inside the Ring, Washington Times, by Bill Gertz, May 16, 2008

Former Deputy Defense Secretary John Hamre says a “raging” debate is under way in Chinese academic circles over Beijiing’s power and influence and when to declare Beijing a world leader. 
 
 Mr. Hamre said one academic cast the debate as “is China going to be the tail of the ox, or the head of rooster?”

The former deputy defense secretary is betting China will stay on track to be a rooster head in Asia and “inspirational leader in Africa and South America.” It could be a global power in 40 to 70 years.

U.S. and Libyan Cooperation

Libya, Pentagon On Verge Of Signing Military Cooperation Pact
(Inside The Pentagon)…Fawzia Sheikh, May 15, 2008

The United States is close to signing a memorandum of understanding with the Libyan government that will open the doors to formal military engagement following years of strained relations, according to a senior military official in the Joint Staff.

A success story on the application of Smart power.

North Korea and the 900lb Gorilla

China Planning To Secure North Korea’s Nuclear Arsenal: Report
(Yahoo.com)…P. Parameswaran, Agence France-Presse, January 8, 2008

China has contingency plans to dispatch troops into North Korea and secure nuclear weapons in the event of instability in the hardline communist state, according to US experts who have talked to Chinese military researchers.

The report, Keeping An Eye On An Unruly Neighbor, was compiled by experts from the Center for Strategic and International Studies, the Asia Foundation and the US Institute of Peace following their visit to China in June last year.

My previous posting identify the trends on the current challenges regarding the negotiations between the U.S. and North Korea as part of the Six Party Talks.  I wanted to include references to a little background information on China’s interest and role in regional stability.  China is the proverbial 900lb gorilla.

Iran does not win a Nuke War

ARTICLE: Israel Wins ‘Nuke War’ , Could destroy Iran: study, New York Post. December 25, 2007, By Andy Soltis

A doomsday war between nuclear-armed adversaries Iran and Israel would kill up to 28 million Iranians and destroy their nation, but the Jewish state might survive, according to a prestigious US think tank.

That would limit Israel’s deaths to as “few” as 200,000 – while its much more numerous and more powerful nukes would obliterate Iran, said the Center for Strategic and International Studies.

Current media coverage on the topics of a potential conflict with Iran reminded me of the story on the results of a nuclear exchange between Israel and Iran.  

SECDEF Gates, Iran, Smart Power

Secretary of Defense Gates referenced the need for the application of Smart Power in a Nov 26, 2007 speech in which he stated: 

 “…  I am here to make the case for strengthening our capacity to use “soft” power and for better integrating it with “hard” power.  ….    or as John Hamre once put it, to combine the tools of “intimidation” with the tools of “inspiration,” also called smart power

Examples on the application of Smart Power provided in the following articles:

Gates: U.S. Should Engage Iran With Incentives, Pressure(Washington Post)
…Karen DeYoung. The United States should construct a combination of incentives and pressure to engage Iran, and may have missed earlier opportunities to begin a useful dialogue with Tehran, Defense Secretary Robert M. Gates said yesterday.

Gates Urges More Nongovernmental Contacts With Iran (Reuters.com)…Arshad Mohammed, Reuters
… Defense Secretary Robert Gates called on Wednesday for more unofficial contacts with Iran, saying this might eventually open a pathway to more substantive dialogue between the governments.

US Defense Secretary Urges More Private US Contacts With Iran (Yahoo.com)…Agence France-Presse
…”We need to figure out a way to develop some leverage with the Iranians and then sit down and talk with them,” he said in a talk at the American Academy of Diplomacy, referring to general US relations with Tehran.

 

Cold War with Iran – Team America Losing

ARTICLE:  The New Cold War (New York Times)…Thomas L. Friedman, May 14, 2008

As the May 11 editorial in the Iranian daily Kayhan put it, “In the power struggle in the Middle East, there are only two sides: Iran and the U.S.” For now, Team America is losing on just about every front. How come?

When you have leverage, talk. When you don’t have leverage, get some — by creating economic, diplomatic or military incentives and pressures that the other side finds too tempting or frightening to ignore.

Reinforces the need for “Smart”  Power.