IRAN: Threats, Options

Ahmadinejad Predicts End For Israel, U.S. (USA Today)…Unattributed, June 3, 2008 , Pg. 5

Iran’s president said that Israel would soon disappear off the map and that the “satanic power” of the United States faced destruction.

Russia Can Be Part Of The Answer On Iran. (Wall Street Journal)…Charles Schumer. June 3, 2008,  Pg. 19

Last month, Iranian President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad announced that Iran was installing an additional 6,000 centrifuges at Iran’s main nuclear enrichment complex. The Bush administration in turn needs to use every diplomatic tool in its arsenal to halt Tehran’s development of nuclear weapons.

Economic sanctions could cause the Iranian government to negotiate seriously with us, and might, over time, topple the theocracy. In fact, the mildest of economic sanctions – a boycott of Iranian banks by U.S. and European central banks – has already produced an economic slowdown, and unrest among Iranians.

Korea: Some things change, some don’t…

Headline News from the SECDEF’s trip to Korea.

Gates Mulling 3-Year Postings. (Washington Times)…Lolita C. Baldor, Associated Press. Extending the tours of U.S. troops serving in South Korea to three years and allowing them to bring their families is overdue, Defense Secretary Robert M. Gates said Monday as he arrived in Seoul.

U.S. Vows To Strengthen War Capabilities With S. Korea. (Yahoo.com)…Daphne Benoit, Agence France-Presse. …Gates said he and his South Korean counterpart had discussed an expanded role for the alliance that could look beyond the Korean peninsula. “We exchanged views on a broad range of issues and future of the alliance and in particular looking beyond the peninsula. We are working together on regional issues,” Gates said without elaborating.

North Korea Is ‘Serious Adversary’: U.S.’s Gates. (Reuters.com)…Jon Herskovitz, Reuters. North Korea presents a serious security threat and U.S. forces in South Korea are ready to respond quickly and decisively to counter any attack, the U.S. defense secretary and military leaders said on Tuesday.

South Korea, U.S. Agree To Maintain Current U.S. Troops. (Xinhua News Agency (Xinhuanet.com))…Xinhua News Agency. South Korea’s Defense Minister Lee Sang-hee and his U.S. counterpart Robert M. Gates agreed Tuesday to maintain the level of 28,500 American troops here, a senior defense official here said.

N. Korea: Keeping their Nukes?

N. Korea Taking Tougher Stance, Ex-Envoy Warns(Washington Post)…Glenn Kessler, May 30, 2008 .Pg. 10

Senior North Korean officials recently said that the United States should get used to a nuclear-armed North Korea, and they refused to acknowledge the validity of U.S. concerns about Pyongyang’s interest in uranium enrichment or its nuclear collaboration with Syria, according to Charles “Jack” Pritchard, a former top U.S. negotiator with North Korea.

Non "Lethal" forms of War

RUSSIA’S CYBER FORCES

Russia’s Cyber Warfare Doctrine is designed to be a force multiplier along with more traditionary military actions including WMD attacks. A “force multiplier” is a military term that describes a weapon or tactic that, when added to and employed along with other combat forces, significantly increases the combat potential of that force.

Like all offensive cyber strategies it includes the capability to disruption the information infrastructure of their enemies. This doctrine includes strategies that would disrupt financial markets, military and civilian communications capabilities as well as other parts of the enemy’s critical infrastructure prior to the initiation of traditional military operations. They also address weaken the economy of their adversary to further decrease their ability to respond to the combined threat.

Lethal and non lethal forms of warfare introduce a revised paradigm for warfare that reinforced Einstein’s remark that “problems cannot be solved by the same level of thinking that created them.”

Iran: Signal Noise Ratio

Iran Gulf Buildup Not Aimed At Challenging U.S., Cosgriff Says
(Bloomberg.com)…Tony Capaccio,  May 28, 2008

Iran’s build-up of its naval forces in the Persian Gulf remains consistent and doesn’t suggest any short-term intent to confront the U.S. Navy or disrupt oil traffic, the head of U.S. naval forces in the Gulf said today.

Don’t `Hyperventilate’ …  Cosgriff urged the public, including oil-industry analysts, not to “hyperventilate” over such encounters.

“Put it into context — you should be able to see the difference between something really extraordinary and something where it looks like they got a little close and nothing really happened,” he said. “Don’t get hyperventilated over these things.”

Great example of applying the variation principle.  “Something really extraordinary” is a conceptual reference to a “Signal” or special cause of variation as opposed to normal (nothing unusual) common cause of variation.

North Korea: Nuclear Declaration

Talks With U.S. Begin, Washington Post, )…Unattributed
May 28, 2008, Pg. 9

The United States and North Korea began talks in Beijing on Tuesday on the communist nation’s delayed nuclear declaration and the political concessions it will receive in return, including the North’s goal of removal from a U.S. terrorism blacklist.

Reinforcing the “Signal vs Noise” theme, NK giving up its nuclear capability would certainly be a Signal.

France: Military Shift – Signal

Go-It-Alone France Shifts Military Stance, (Washington Post)…Molly Moore, May 25, 2008 , Pg. 17

…After decades of a go-it-alone military strategy, France has become one of Europe’s greatest advocates of an emerging European Union defense force and is considering allowing French forces back into the NATO command structure after a 43-year absence.

Conceptually, change represents a “Signal”  … e.g., special cause of variation.

U.S. Russia, Georgia, Abkhazia …

U.N. Says Russia Downed Drone, Washington Post
May 27, 2008 , Pg. 8, …Peter Finn

U.N. investigators concluded in a report released Monday that a Russian fighter jet almost certainly shot down a Georgian reconnaissance drone over the separatist region of Abkhazia last month. The finding supports Georgian assertions that Russia is providing military backing to rebels in the Black Sea enclave.

See previous postings for context.

Iraq: Endgame and Strategic Patience

Gates Says Iraq ‘Endgame’ In Sight (Wall Street Journal (wsj.com))…Agence France-Presse, May 21, 2008

U.S. Defense Secretary Robert Gates said Thursday the “endgame” is now in sight in Iraq but warned of the costly consequences of withdrawing U.S. forces too hastily.

“I fear that frustration over slow progress and dismay over sacrifices already made may result in decisions that are gratifying in the short term but very costly to us in the long term,” he said.

We are now seeing what the end game in Iraq looks like – with our forces drawing down over time, in a series of very complex battlefield rearrangements that slowly cede more responsibility for day-to-day security operations to the Iraqis,” the prepared remarks said.

“It is a slow process – slower than most would wish, myself included,” he said. “But it is necessary if we are to get the endgame right.”