Category: Intl Security

Iran: "Israel will almost surely attack…"

Using Bombs To Stave Off War(New York Times)…Benny Morris

Israel will almost surely attack Iran’s nuclear sites in the next four to seven months — and the leaders in Washington and even Tehran should hope that the attack will be successful enough to cause at least a significant delay in the Iranian production schedule, if not complete destruction, of that country’s nuclear program. Because if the attack fails, the Middle East will almost certainly face a nuclear war — either through a subsequent pre-emptive Israeli nuclear strike or a nuclear exchange shortly after Iran gets the bomb.

Afghanistan Surge

Time For An Afghan Surge(Time)…John McCain, Time, July 28, 2008

…The Afghan army is already a great success story: a multiethnic, battle-tested fighting force. The problem is, it’s too small, with a projected strength of only 80,000 troops. We need to at least double the size of the Afghan army and establish an international trust fund to provide long-term financing for the effort

Refocusing On The Central Front, (Time)…Barack Obama, July 28, 2008

…I will send at least two additional combat brigades to Afghanistan and use this commitment to seek greater contributions–with fewer restrictions–from NATO allies. I will focus on training Afghan security forces and supporting an Afghan judiciary.

Iran: Diplomatic Option

    U.S. Considers Opening A Diplomatic Post In Iran
    (New York Times)…Elaine Sciolino and Sheryl Gay Stolberg
    The Bush administration is considering establishing an American diplomatic presence in Iran for the first time since relations were severed during the 444-day occupation of the American Embassy in Tehran nearly three decades ago, European and American officials said on Thursday.

     Sanctions Fail To Cripple Iran’s Oil Industry
    (Wall Street Journal)…Chip Cummins and Roshanak Taghavi
    As Iran prepares to hold nuclear talks this weekend with Europe and the U.S., economic sanctions are crimping Tehran’s oil industry — but they haven’t broken it.

Bomb Iran: Assessment

What ‘Bomb Iran’ Really Takes
(New York Post)…Ralph Peters, July 17, 2008

My greatest worry on Iran’s nuclear threat to civilization isn’t the military option. It’s trying that option on the cheap.

Military strikes must be the last resort. Even a successful attack would panic oil markets, interrupt supplies to an unknown degree and make enemies of the Iranian people for another generation.

Without compromising any secrets – the Iranians already know what we’d need to do  …

Screw up the effort, and today’s oil prices will double or triple, with severe downstream shortages showing up in a matter of weeks – every oil tanker’s insurance will be canceled immediately, even if the Straits of Hormuz remain open (unlikely).

And we’ll be in the global doghouse.

Ralph Peters’ new book is “Looking for Trouble: Adventures in a Broken World.”

Israel Syria Agreement: Clearing the deck

POST: Unpopular trifecta, Thomas P.M. Barnett on July 16, 2008

POST: The Syria Card, By David J. Haimsky, SWJ Blog, July 6, 2008

Well-argued and worth reading.

To me, the Syria card has little to do with us (Rice seems to view the DPRK peace treaty as her hoped-for legacy–as pathetic as it will be to ask Beijing to craft it), but instead just represents Israel clearing the deck before anticipated strikes.

Very unpopular leader there also needing a boost, making for a trifecta with Bush and Ahmadinejad.

Iraq: Good Odds for Victory

The New Reality In Iraq, (Wall Street Journal)…Frederick W. Kagan, Kimberly Kagan and Jack Keane, July 16, 2008
Pg. 17

All of the most important objectives of the surge have been accomplished in Iraq. The sectarian civil war is ended; al Qaeda in Iraq (AQI) has been dealt a devastating blow; and the Sadrist militia and other Iranian-backed militant groups have been disrupted.

The result is that we have an extraordinary — but fleeting — opportunity to advance America’s security and the stability of a vital region of the world.

The blunt fact is this. In Iraq, al Qaeda is on the ropes, and the Shiite militias are badly off-balance.

If America remains firm in its commitment to success in Iraq, success is very likely. The AQI and Shiite militias at present do not have the capacity to drive Iraq off course — unless both the U.S. and the Iraqi government make a number of serious mistakes.

While victory in war is never certain until the war is over, the odds are strongly with us for once — provided we do the right thing. That is to stand by our best ally in the war against al Qaeda, and the struggle to contain Iran.

Mr. Kagan is a resident scholar at the American Enterprise Institute. Ms. Kagan is president of the Institute for the Study of War. Mr. Keane is a former vice chief of staff of the U.S. Army. All have just returned from their most recent visit to Iraq.