Iraq: Good Odds for Victory

The New Reality In Iraq, (Wall Street Journal)…Frederick W. Kagan, Kimberly Kagan and Jack Keane, July 16, 2008
Pg. 17

All of the most important objectives of the surge have been accomplished in Iraq. The sectarian civil war is ended; al Qaeda in Iraq (AQI) has been dealt a devastating blow; and the Sadrist militia and other Iranian-backed militant groups have been disrupted.

The result is that we have an extraordinary — but fleeting — opportunity to advance America’s security and the stability of a vital region of the world.

The blunt fact is this. In Iraq, al Qaeda is on the ropes, and the Shiite militias are badly off-balance.

If America remains firm in its commitment to success in Iraq, success is very likely. The AQI and Shiite militias at present do not have the capacity to drive Iraq off course — unless both the U.S. and the Iraqi government make a number of serious mistakes.

While victory in war is never certain until the war is over, the odds are strongly with us for once — provided we do the right thing. That is to stand by our best ally in the war against al Qaeda, and the struggle to contain Iran.

Mr. Kagan is a resident scholar at the American Enterprise Institute. Ms. Kagan is president of the Institute for the Study of War. Mr. Keane is a former vice chief of staff of the U.S. Army. All have just returned from their most recent visit to Iraq.