Category: Intl Security

Russia, U.S. Missile Defense

Russian Bombers Could Be Deployed To Cuba
(Washington Post)…Peter Finn, July 22, 2008
Pg. 10

Russian bombers capable of carrying nuclear weapons could be deployed to Cuba in response to U.S. plans to install a missile defense system in Eastern Europe, a Russian newspaper reported Monday, citing an unnamed senior Russian air force official.

"While they are deploying the missile shield in Poland and the Czech Republic, our strategic bombers will already be landing in Cuba," Izvestia quoted the source as saying.

The United States says it wants to deploy tracking radar in the Czech Republic and 10 missile interceptors in Poland as a defensive measure against missiles that might be fired from countries such as Iran. U.S. officials insist that the system presents no threat to Russia, which, they say, could easily overwhelm it by launching multiple missiles at the same time.

Iran: Not being serious about nuclear program

Iran Not Serious In Nuclear Talks, U.S. Says, (Baltimore Sun)…Unattributed, July 21, 2008

Secretary of State Condoleezza Rice accused Iran today of not being serious at weekend talks about its disputed nuclear program despite the presence of a senior U.S. diplomat, and warned that Tehran might soon face new sanctions. In her first public comments since Saturday’s meeting in Switzerland, Rice said Iran had given the runaround to envoys from the United States and five other world powers. She said all six nations were serious about a two-week deadline for Iran to agree to freeze suspect activities and start negotiations or be hit with new penalties. At the meeting, Iran had been expected to respond to a package of incentives offered in exchange for halting the enrichment of uranium, which can be used to fuel nuclear reactors or atomic weapons.

China: Political Flexibility

POST: A glimpse of the future in China, Thomas P.M. Barnett on July 18, 2008

POST: Membership has its privileges. Posted by Thomas P.M. Barnett on July 18, 2008.

Globalization is force for change.  The interesting thing to watch about China is how they will deal with the conflict between a closed political system and a more open economic system.  

The so-what is that China is projected by many to be a future "military peer competitor."  The larger the perceived threat, the larger share of the U.S. budget devoted to national security.

Al Qaeda defeat in Iraq

Al Qaeda’s Market Crash, (New York Post)…Ralph Peters, July 19, 2008, Pg. 19

IF you think the US markets have problems, look at the value of al Qaeda shares throughout the Muslim world: A high-flying political equity just a few years ago, its stock has tanked. It made the wrong strategic investments and squandered its moral capital.

What a difference a war makes.

Guess what? We won.

So what’s the greatest irony? The president’s oft-mocked declaration of "Mission Accomplished" wasn’t wrong, after all – just premature.

Ralph Peters’ new book is "Looking For Trouble: Adventures in a Broken World."

Iraq: Security Agreement

Surge Protector, (New York Times)…William J. Fallon, July 20, 2008.

THE prospect of a long-term security arrangement between the United States and Iraq has become a lightning rod for criticism. Yet such an agreement — which the White House believes could be completed this month now that the two countries have agreed to set a “general time horizon” for reducing the number of American troops in Iraq — would be in the best interests of the governments of both countries, and of the people who live in a region of the world that urgently needs stability.

Iran and U.S. Diplomacy

U.S. Talks With Iran Exemplify Bush’s New Approaches
(Washington Post)…Dan Eggen

With his moves last week involving Iraq, Iran and North Korea, President Bush accelerated a shift toward centrist foreign policies, a change that has cheered Democrats, angered some Republicans and roiled the presidential campaign.

U.S. Is Present, But Iran Nuclear Talks End In Stalemate
(New York Times)…Elaine Sciolino
International talks on Iran’s nuclear ambitions ended in deadlock on Saturday, despite the Bush administration’s decision to reverse policy and send a senior American official to the table for the first time.

Iran: Afghanistan Importance

Iran Building Influence In Afghanistan
(Seattle Times)…Bill Varner, Bloomberg News

…While the world focuses on tensions between Afghanistan and Pakistan 800 miles to the east, U.S. officials keep watch on Iran’s expanding presence in Herat and the surrounding province of 2 million people. The region might play a major role if conflict erupts over Iran’s nuclear program.

Iraq: More positive trends

    Iraqi Sunnis End Boycott And Rejoin Government, (New York Times)…Campbell Robertson and Sabrina Tavernise. Iraqi lawmakers cleared an important hurdle on Saturday by approving the appointment of six Sunni cabinet ministers after a yearlong boycott by the Sunni political bloc.

    Sunni Bloc Rejoins Iraqi Government, Amid Reconciliation Hopes, (Washington (Post) …Sudarsan Raghavan. …The move came as British Prime Minister Gordon Brown made an unannounced visit to Baghdad for talks with Maliki and President Jalal Talabani. Brown declared afterward that Britain will reduce troop levels in Iraq but refused to set what he called an "artificial" timetable.
    Sunni Bloc Returns To Iraq Cabinet
    (Los Angeles Times)…Alexandra Zavis and Raheem Salman, …Left out of the mix were members of the so-called Awakening movement made up of Sunni tribal leaders, whose rebellion against Sunni militants is credited by the U.S. military with helping bring down the level of violence nationwide. Awakening leaders have been pressing for a stake in power, and frustration is building at Maliki’s failure to embrace the movement.
    Al Qaeda Shifting Focus From Iraq, (Washington Times)…Robert Burns, Associated Press. After intense U.S. assaults, al Qaeda may be considering shifting focus to its original home base in Afghanistan, where American casualties are running higher than in Iraq, the top U.S. commander in Iraq said Saturday.
    Maliki Backs Obama Troop Pullout Plan
    (Chicago Tribune)…Liz Sly, Iraqi Prime Minister Nouri al-Maliki threw his support behind Barack Obama’s troop withdrawal plan in an interview published Saturday, ahead of an expected visit by the Illinois senator to a significantly calmer Baghdad than the one he last encountered two years ago.
    Hotel For Green Zone, (New York Daily News)…Unattributed, Iraqi officials say they have approved plans to build a five-star hotel in Baghdad’s heavily guarded Green Zone.

Bush Doctrine: Planned Change

Bush Foreign Policy.  5 Questions for Bill Sammon. Interview on a discussion that Bill Sammon had with President Bush. Townhall magazine, July 2008.

It’s one of the most significant things about the Bush presidency …. that he fundamentally changed U.S. foreign policy. We had, for decades, the twin strategies of containment and deterrence. It went very well … but when communism was replaced by terrorism as the global threat, those strategies were no longer operable … Bush had to come up with totally new strategies, and these, of course were preemption and democratization … I asked Bush, “How are we going to know if this democratization portion is ever going to work?” and he said, “Bill, you and I are going to be dead before anyone figures out whether it works, but if we don’t do something fundamentally different now about the way we deal with the Middle East, we’ll just continue to have the status quo.” … It’s very audacious, sweeping, ambitious thing that he started, and we don’t talk much about it.

Three general options on “planned change:”  Maintain the status quo, incremental/evolutionary, or revolutionary/radical (fundamental change). The higher degree of change, the higher the risk.

Leadership at the strategic level considers the long-view but must also account for the near and mid-term view.

The “So-what?” is the importance of shaping the plan to support the vision.  DoD’s Joint Universal Task List stratified at the strategic, operational and tactical levels, identify “tasks” (systems and processes) that are integrated within operational phases: Phase 0-Shape; Phase I-Deter; Phase II-Seize the Initiative; Phase III-Dominate (includes stages); Phase IV-Stabilize; and Phase V-Enable Civil Authority.

When fundamental change is going to be made, involve stakeholders that represent all elements of power to work through the near, mid, and long term planning through application of the strategic leadership paradigm and framework.