Author: Tim J. Clark

Iraq; Reconciliations

Dealing With Insurgents In Iraq, (FNC)…David Piper, July 16, 2008

…These are members of the 101st Airborne and they’re processing Iraqi suspects from the Balad area here in central Iraq. This is reconciliation Iraqi style. These men have simply walked in to this U.S. forward operating base to announce they want no part of the war anymore.

First of all, these men, who have been sponsored by a tribal leader, are read a ceasefire agreement. They then go through the identification process and their biometric data are taken. They are then urged to admit anything they’ve done. If they have charges to answer to, they will later have to appear before an Iraqi judge and he will decide if they are guilty or not. Up until now, the judges seem to have shown leniency in keeping with the new spirit of national unity and haven’t found any of the over 100 men who have come before them guilty. That is the carrot, but there’s also a very large stick.

All these individuals have been warned if they conduct any types of terrorist offences in the future, they’re likely to spend a very long time in the Iraqi jail. The 101st Airborne have had to make up these identification procedures as they go along. It’s helping them build an invaluable database of who’s who in the area and also a powerful tool to find individuals if they re-offend, and combining it with existing intelligence can unearth hidden treasure. As the soldiers slowly processed these individuals, they discovered among them the second and fourth most wanted men they have been after for months. Number two knows he’s a wanted man, but doesn’t know he’s among Balad’s most wanted.

Bomb Iran: Assessment

What ‘Bomb Iran’ Really Takes
(New York Post)…Ralph Peters, July 17, 2008

My greatest worry on Iran’s nuclear threat to civilization isn’t the military option. It’s trying that option on the cheap.

Military strikes must be the last resort. Even a successful attack would panic oil markets, interrupt supplies to an unknown degree and make enemies of the Iranian people for another generation.

Without compromising any secrets – the Iranians already know what we’d need to do  …

Screw up the effort, and today’s oil prices will double or triple, with severe downstream shortages showing up in a matter of weeks – every oil tanker’s insurance will be canceled immediately, even if the Straits of Hormuz remain open (unlikely).

And we’ll be in the global doghouse.

Ralph Peters’ new book is “Looking for Trouble: Adventures in a Broken World.”

Civil Response Corps, Nation Building

Rice Hails Corps To Rebuild Nations, (Washington Times)…Nicholas Kralev, July 17, 2008 , Pg. 1

Secretary of State Condoleezza Rice inaugurated the U.S. government’s first-ever civilian nation-building team Wednesday in a bid to learn from missteps in Iraq and Afghanistan reconstruction efforts.

The “active” component, called the Civilian Response Corps, is a team of 250 federal employees from several agencies – diplomats, development specialists, public health officials, law enforcement and corrections officers, engineers, economists, lawyers, public administrators, agronomists and others.

Their primary responsibility is to deploy to crisis spots around the world within 48 to 72 hours.

“This is a mission that requires the integration of security, diplomacy and development,”

Dark Ages: Decline of the State and U.S. Strategy

MONOGRAPH: From the new Middle Ages to a new dark Age: The Decline of the State and U.S. Strategy, by Dr. Phil Williams, June 2008.

This monograph presents key insights into the shifting security environment and considers how the United States can best respond. The author suggests the decline in state power will accelerate, taking us into a New Dark Age where the forces of chaos could be overwhelming. Whether or not one agrees with the author’s gloomy prognosis, he identifies trends and potential challenges that will affect U.S. strategy and military posture in the next few decades and offers suggestions about possible responses.

War of Ideas

MONOGRAPH: Wars of Ideas and The War of Ideas by Dr. Antulio J. Echevarria II. June 2008.

This monograph analyzes how the United States and its allies and strategic partners might proceed in the current “war of ideas” with al-Qaeda and other groups. Two diverging schools of thought exist. The first treats the conflict as a matter of public diplomacy, and calls for revitalizing the U.S. State Department and reestablishing many traditional tools of statecraft. The second advocates waging the war of ideas as a “real war,” destroying the influence and credibility of the opposing ideology. It calls for continuing the transformation of the U.S. Defense Department so that it can better leverage information-age weapons. The author presents recommendations concerning these approaches as well as others in the “war of ideas.”

Israel Syria Agreement: Clearing the deck

POST: Unpopular trifecta, Thomas P.M. Barnett on July 16, 2008

POST: The Syria Card, By David J. Haimsky, SWJ Blog, July 6, 2008

Well-argued and worth reading.

To me, the Syria card has little to do with us (Rice seems to view the DPRK peace treaty as her hoped-for legacy–as pathetic as it will be to ask Beijing to craft it), but instead just represents Israel clearing the deck before anticipated strikes.

Very unpopular leader there also needing a boost, making for a trifecta with Bush and Ahmadinejad.

Iraq: Good Odds for Victory

The New Reality In Iraq, (Wall Street Journal)…Frederick W. Kagan, Kimberly Kagan and Jack Keane, July 16, 2008
Pg. 17

All of the most important objectives of the surge have been accomplished in Iraq. The sectarian civil war is ended; al Qaeda in Iraq (AQI) has been dealt a devastating blow; and the Sadrist militia and other Iranian-backed militant groups have been disrupted.

The result is that we have an extraordinary — but fleeting — opportunity to advance America’s security and the stability of a vital region of the world.

The blunt fact is this. In Iraq, al Qaeda is on the ropes, and the Shiite militias are badly off-balance.

If America remains firm in its commitment to success in Iraq, success is very likely. The AQI and Shiite militias at present do not have the capacity to drive Iraq off course — unless both the U.S. and the Iraqi government make a number of serious mistakes.

While victory in war is never certain until the war is over, the odds are strongly with us for once — provided we do the right thing. That is to stand by our best ally in the war against al Qaeda, and the struggle to contain Iran.

Mr. Kagan is a resident scholar at the American Enterprise Institute. Ms. Kagan is president of the Institute for the Study of War. Mr. Keane is a former vice chief of staff of the U.S. Army. All have just returned from their most recent visit to Iraq.