Author: Tim J. Clark

Iran and U.S. Diplomacy

U.S. Talks With Iran Exemplify Bush’s New Approaches
(Washington Post)…Dan Eggen

With his moves last week involving Iraq, Iran and North Korea, President Bush accelerated a shift toward centrist foreign policies, a change that has cheered Democrats, angered some Republicans and roiled the presidential campaign.

U.S. Is Present, But Iran Nuclear Talks End In Stalemate
(New York Times)…Elaine Sciolino
International talks on Iran’s nuclear ambitions ended in deadlock on Saturday, despite the Bush administration’s decision to reverse policy and send a senior American official to the table for the first time.

Iran: Afghanistan Importance

Iran Building Influence In Afghanistan
(Seattle Times)…Bill Varner, Bloomberg News

…While the world focuses on tensions between Afghanistan and Pakistan 800 miles to the east, U.S. officials keep watch on Iran’s expanding presence in Herat and the surrounding province of 2 million people. The region might play a major role if conflict erupts over Iran’s nuclear program.

Iraq: More positive trends

    Iraqi Sunnis End Boycott And Rejoin Government, (New York Times)…Campbell Robertson and Sabrina Tavernise. Iraqi lawmakers cleared an important hurdle on Saturday by approving the appointment of six Sunni cabinet ministers after a yearlong boycott by the Sunni political bloc.

    Sunni Bloc Rejoins Iraqi Government, Amid Reconciliation Hopes, (Washington (Post) …Sudarsan Raghavan. …The move came as British Prime Minister Gordon Brown made an unannounced visit to Baghdad for talks with Maliki and President Jalal Talabani. Brown declared afterward that Britain will reduce troop levels in Iraq but refused to set what he called an "artificial" timetable.
    Sunni Bloc Returns To Iraq Cabinet
    (Los Angeles Times)…Alexandra Zavis and Raheem Salman, …Left out of the mix were members of the so-called Awakening movement made up of Sunni tribal leaders, whose rebellion against Sunni militants is credited by the U.S. military with helping bring down the level of violence nationwide. Awakening leaders have been pressing for a stake in power, and frustration is building at Maliki’s failure to embrace the movement.
    Al Qaeda Shifting Focus From Iraq, (Washington Times)…Robert Burns, Associated Press. After intense U.S. assaults, al Qaeda may be considering shifting focus to its original home base in Afghanistan, where American casualties are running higher than in Iraq, the top U.S. commander in Iraq said Saturday.
    Maliki Backs Obama Troop Pullout Plan
    (Chicago Tribune)…Liz Sly, Iraqi Prime Minister Nouri al-Maliki threw his support behind Barack Obama’s troop withdrawal plan in an interview published Saturday, ahead of an expected visit by the Illinois senator to a significantly calmer Baghdad than the one he last encountered two years ago.
    Hotel For Green Zone, (New York Daily News)…Unattributed, Iraqi officials say they have approved plans to build a five-star hotel in Baghdad’s heavily guarded Green Zone.

Bush Doctrine: Planned Change

Bush Foreign Policy.  5 Questions for Bill Sammon. Interview on a discussion that Bill Sammon had with President Bush. Townhall magazine, July 2008.

It’s one of the most significant things about the Bush presidency …. that he fundamentally changed U.S. foreign policy. We had, for decades, the twin strategies of containment and deterrence. It went very well … but when communism was replaced by terrorism as the global threat, those strategies were no longer operable … Bush had to come up with totally new strategies, and these, of course were preemption and democratization … I asked Bush, “How are we going to know if this democratization portion is ever going to work?” and he said, “Bill, you and I are going to be dead before anyone figures out whether it works, but if we don’t do something fundamentally different now about the way we deal with the Middle East, we’ll just continue to have the status quo.” … It’s very audacious, sweeping, ambitious thing that he started, and we don’t talk much about it.

Three general options on “planned change:”  Maintain the status quo, incremental/evolutionary, or revolutionary/radical (fundamental change). The higher degree of change, the higher the risk.

Leadership at the strategic level considers the long-view but must also account for the near and mid-term view.

The “So-what?” is the importance of shaping the plan to support the vision.  DoD’s Joint Universal Task List stratified at the strategic, operational and tactical levels, identify “tasks” (systems and processes) that are integrated within operational phases: Phase 0-Shape; Phase I-Deter; Phase II-Seize the Initiative; Phase III-Dominate (includes stages); Phase IV-Stabilize; and Phase V-Enable Civil Authority.

When fundamental change is going to be made, involve stakeholders that represent all elements of power to work through the near, mid, and long term planning through application of the strategic leadership paradigm and framework. 

Control over WMD

Trust Still Needs Verification, (Washington Times)…Richard Lugar, July 18, 2008, Pg. 24

Although it escaped most news media attention, the United States received an important bit of good news over the July 4 holiday: Russia’s parliament overwhelmingly approved legislation that enables the United States and Russia to continue their 16-year cooperation to safeguard and destroy the vast Soviet nuclear, chemical and biological weapons arsenal, which to this day remains a danger to both countries.

Iran: "Israel will almost surely attack…"

Using Bombs To Stave Off War(New York Times)…Benny Morris

Israel will almost surely attack Iran’s nuclear sites in the next four to seven months — and the leaders in Washington and even Tehran should hope that the attack will be successful enough to cause at least a significant delay in the Iranian production schedule, if not complete destruction, of that country’s nuclear program. Because if the attack fails, the Middle East will almost certainly face a nuclear war — either through a subsequent pre-emptive Israeli nuclear strike or a nuclear exchange shortly after Iran gets the bomb.

Afghanistan Surge

Time For An Afghan Surge(Time)…John McCain, Time, July 28, 2008

…The Afghan army is already a great success story: a multiethnic, battle-tested fighting force. The problem is, it’s too small, with a projected strength of only 80,000 troops. We need to at least double the size of the Afghan army and establish an international trust fund to provide long-term financing for the effort

Refocusing On The Central Front, (Time)…Barack Obama, July 28, 2008

…I will send at least two additional combat brigades to Afghanistan and use this commitment to seek greater contributions–with fewer restrictions–from NATO allies. I will focus on training Afghan security forces and supporting an Afghan judiciary.

Iran: Diplomatic Option

    U.S. Considers Opening A Diplomatic Post In Iran
    (New York Times)…Elaine Sciolino and Sheryl Gay Stolberg
    The Bush administration is considering establishing an American diplomatic presence in Iran for the first time since relations were severed during the 444-day occupation of the American Embassy in Tehran nearly three decades ago, European and American officials said on Thursday.

     Sanctions Fail To Cripple Iran’s Oil Industry
    (Wall Street Journal)…Chip Cummins and Roshanak Taghavi
    As Iran prepares to hold nuclear talks this weekend with Europe and the U.S., economic sanctions are crimping Tehran’s oil industry — but they haven’t broken it.

Quality Leadership and Strategic Thinking

POST: Taking Stock. Posted by Thomas P.M. Barnett on July 16, 2008

This posting from Tom Barnett, is one of the many reasons I admire him and his work.  He shares his personal and professional experiences that provide a  “360 view” from an individual perspective.  The personal insight may get us all thinking on the need and challenges involved with balancing our personal, spiritual  and professional lives.

Tom Barnett is also a great example of what I refer to as a Quality Leader that has an intuitive awareness and understanding of the variation principle.  My thesis is that a conscious awareness and understanding of variation will develop more great leaders.

If you notice on most of my posts, I typically capture themes by categories and I sometimes add comments.  It’s kind of an R&D process at this point that I hope will lead to helping me separate the proverbial signals from the noises.  The Top 10 category I am using to capture key concepts. The Taking Stock posting from Tom helps bring out what  I hope is some clarity on strategy and leadership.

Regarding comments in the  posting, on the professional side and from a system and strategy perspective, I think the boundary of any rut for a strategist would be defined by the timeframe of the strategy. The long-term view from a strategic perspective would cover the time humans have been on the planet. Religious leaders typically represent this perspective, e.g., the Episcopalian priest option.

I think the ultimate “living” system/strategic thinker is the Dalai Lama. He thinks in terms of hundred/thousands of years. But he has the advantage in that he recalls past lifetimes so he can build on lessons learned. Interesting to follow his strategy for obtaining autonomy for Tibet. One of China’s counter strategies was to pass a law that attempts to prevent living Buddha’s from reincarnating without permission.

I think the foundation for strategy is represented by the win/lose paradigm. Win/Win being the ideal, e.g, positive thoughts, words, and actions, that benefit everyone. Love captures the concept.  Mother Teresa one of the better examples. Dalai Lama falls into this category as well. The win/lose paradigm is the most prevalent. The lose/lose option represents the ultimate in negative action. Diplomacy/Politics represents the most common example of the win/lose mind-set.

The U.S. Founding fathers captured the ideal/non-ideal concept in the design of our system of government: Ideals of life, liberty, pursuit of happiness combined with a system of checks and balances on power that was designed to be continually improved. On the emergence of our two-part system, the value added by the parties is identifying the polarity on respective issues; the downside is not working together in making progress towards our ideals. American Transformation to Quality Government.

Tom Barnett is a great examples of what I refer to as Quality Leader with an intuitive awareness and understanding of the variation principle.  Quality Leadership is “a” way ahead for developing more great leaders.¼/p>