Budget Politics

Dogfight Over F-22 Requirement Reveals DOD Schisms, (Aerospace Daily & Defense Report)…David A. Fulghum, Nov 18, 2008.

The battle over how many F-22 Raptors the U.S. Air Force requires is revealing some nasty infighting as the White House administration change nears. The Defense Secretary staff has told Air Force planners not to talk to congressional staffers and to work only through the offices of Deputy Secretary of Defense Gordon England and acquisition chief John Young.

A new study from the Center for Strategic and International Studies — whose CEO, John Hamre, has been mentioned as a possible candidate for President-elect Barack Obama’s defense secretary — contends that war costs, manpower costs, underfunded operations and procurement crises in every service will force the new administration to reshape almost every aspect of current defense plans, programs and budgets.

Strategy for the long haul

Obama Administration Faces Hard Choices In Managing Ground Troops, (GovExec.com)…Katherine McIntire Peters, Nov 17, 2008.

The Center for Strategic and Budgetary Assessments on Monday released three new reports aimed at informing the next administration as it makes difficult decisions in shaping a new military strategy.

The nonpartisan center’s analysts laid out detailed accounts of the recruiting, equipping and organizational challenges confronting the ground services and recommended the Obama administration cut some weapons programs, reorganize special operations forces and reconsider plans to substantially increase the size of the Army.

The reports were the latest installments in the center’s “Strategy for the Long Haul,” a comprehensive look at how the services are poised to face the most likely strategic challenges in the coming years. The 15-volume collection of monographs seeks to inform the Pentagon’s upcoming Quadrennial Defense Review, which will get under way in early 2009, as well as guide the Obama administration.

Bush Doctrine of Preemptive Defense

Shultz: Bush Defense Policy Should Stay…Donald Lambro, Nov 18, 2008.

Former Secretary of State George P. Shultz says President-elect Barack Obama should practice President Bush’s doctrine of pre-emptive defense against terrorism that has kept the country safe since the Sept. 11 attacks.

Mr. Shultz credited Mr. Bush with pushing “a controversial but important idea” he said has made the U.S. a harder target when other nations were being hit by terrorists.

“That is, that in this age where there are people who want to do damage to us through terrorist tactics, you want to be aggressive in trying to find out what might happen before it happens, and then stop it from happening; that is, take preventive action,” he said in an interview with The Washington Times in his office at the Hoover Institution at Stanford University.

NKorea: Endless bargainers

Shultz: Bush Defense Policy Should Stay…Donald Lambro, Nov 18, 2008.

In the wide-ranging interview, Mr. Shultz also said setting a troop-withdrawal date in Iraq is dangerous, and that North Korea’s refusal to let international inspectors conduct tests for nuclear materials is part of a pattern.

“They are endless bargainers. There is no such thing as a firm agreement with them. You make an agreement, you make a compromise and then they immediately break it in some fashion,” Mr. Shultz said.

Securing the Bomb

Report On Nuclear Security Urges Prompt Global Action, (Washington Post)…David E. Hoffman, Nov 18, 2008.

When armed men attacked South Africa’s most closely guarded nuclear facility a year ago, they penetrated the detection systems at the perimeter, cut through an electrified fence and broke into the emergency control center, shooting one worker there in the chest before escaping.

The Pelindaba facility holds hundreds of pounds of weapons-grade, highly enriched uranium. Although the attackers last November did not steal any of it, the assault highlights what a new report describes as the increasingly global challenge of keeping nuclear materials from falling into the hands of terrorists.

…The report, “Securing the Bomb 2008,” the seventh annual study from Harvard University’s Belfer Center for Science and International Affairs, is to be released today. The study was commissioned by the Nuclear Threat Initiative, a nonproliferation organization co-chaired by former senator Sam Nunn of Georgia.

In an agenda for the incoming administration, the report urges “a global campaign to lock down every nuclear weapon and every significant stock of potential nuclear bomb material worldwide as rapidly as that can possibly be done.” The report also calls for the appointment of a senior White House official with daily responsibility for preventing a nuclear terrorist attack.

Credit for the Surge

Mr. Obama, Give That Man A Medal, (Wall Street Journal)…William McGurn, Nov 18, 2008.

Stephen Hadley offered the option of victory in Iraq.

The surge story begins back in 2006, when al Qaeda finally succeeded in setting the Shia and Sunni at each others’ throats. That October, with Baghdad consumed by sectarian fires, Mr. Hadley tasked William Luti to come up with a new way forward.

By having Mr. Luti draw up the concept for a surge, Mr. Hadley ensured that when options were presented to the president, one of them would be to fight. In Mr. Luti’s strategic conception, securing the population became the top priority. In public, advocates like retired Army Gen. Jack Keane and military strategist Fred Kagan did yeoman’s work to press the case for a surge. But within the White House decision-making process, it was almost this simple: No Steve Hadley, no surge — and no success.

Awarding Steve Hadley the Medal of Freedom would cost Mr. Obama nothing, save possibly a few howls from the Daily Kos.

National Guard Chief Gets 4th Star

History Made As Guard Chief Gets 4th Star, (ArmyTimes.com)…William H. McMichael, Nov 17, 2008.

Hearty cheers filled the Pentagon auditorium Monday afternoon as history was made when a fourth star was pinned on the shoulders of the new chief of the National Guard Bureau — for the first time in its almost four centuries of existence.

nKorea: Criticism on nuclear inspections

Bush Criticized On Iraq, N.Korea, (Washington Times)…Sara A. Carter and Nicholas Kralev, Nov 18, 2008.

President Bush’s efforts to resolve two major foreign-policy challenges in his waning days in office have prompted double-barreled criticisms, with leaders here and abroad questioning concessions his administration has made to Iraq and North Korea.

On the North Korean front, the Bush administration is drawing fire for removing North Korea from the U.S. list of terrorist-sponsoring nations without obtaining a firm agreement allowing outside inspectors to take samples from nuclear sites.

Here, public criticism has come from South Korea and Japan over an agreement on outside nuclear inspections in North Korea.

“Washington itself admitted a lot of ambiguities exist,” South Korean Foreign Minister Yu Myung-hwan told the South Korean parliament last week. “Through consultations with other countries, we will ensure that sampling is an essential part of verification.”

Japanese Prime Minister Taro Aso has said that the situation will be “tangled” if the U.S.-North Korea verification deal was only a verbal understanding.

Tokyo’s top envoy to the six-party talks, Akitaka Saiki, said after meeting his Chinese counterpart that Beijing is not ready to call the group’s next meeting because of differences “over how to put the U.S.-North Korea deal on paper,” Japan’s Kyodo News agency reported.

Chief U.S. negotiator Christopher R. Hill returned from a visit to Pyongyang in early October with what the State Department said was an “agreement” to verify a nuclear declaration submitted by the communist state in June.

The department has not released the main document, but only an accompanying “fact sheet” with “U.S.-North Korea understandings on verification.”

The “understandings” outlined specific verification measures, such as “the use of scientific procedures, including sampling and forensic activities,” which would provide relatively reliable clues about the North’s nuclear activities.

North Korea, however, insisted last week that it had made no such promises and rejected the notion of allowing any samples to be removed at the site of its plutonium-making plant at Yongbyon.

“The method of verification will be … confined to field visits,” the official KCNA news agency quoted a Foreign Ministry spokesman as saying. Changing the written agreement is “an act of infringing upon sovereignty little short of seeking a house search.”

Daryl Kimball, executive director of the Arms Control Association, said: “The Japanese, South Koreans and even the Chinese are unhappy about the level of consultations, because now we have ambiguity, and they are frustrated that this situation has emerged.”

Officials and analysts said it is likely that the North Koreans are trying to buy time until President-elect Barack Obama takes office.

But Evans Revere, president of the Korea Society in New York, said North Koreans had been repeatedly warned against making such assumptions.

“If Pyongyang thinks that the next administration is going to give them an ‘easier ride,’ I think they are making a mistake,” Mr. Revere said. “During the North Korean delegation’s recent visit to New York, many people made precisely this point to them.”

nKorea: Info Security

The Information Fortress Known As North Korea(Los Angeles Times)…John M. Glionna, Nov 14, 2008.

Some intelligence is smuggled out by groups and individuals these days, but the main thing outsiders know about the reclusive regime is that they know nothing.

Kim’s approach is, ‘Know thy enemy but don’t let them know us,’ “

These days, much of the information gathering on North Korea comes not from governments but private individuals and human rights groups that have managed to piece together a clandestine network of internal reporters. Some nongovernmental aid organizations return from the country with observations of what goes on there.

“Nobody is too confident about information out of North Korea,” Kang said. “Even the North Korean government isn’t that confident of the statistics they compile.”

“What Kim Jong Il has put together is a counter-intelligence masterpiece,” said Korean historian Andrei Lankov.

“I speak of the CIA’s record in North Korea as the longest running failure in the history of American espionage,” said Donald Gregg, a CIA station chief in South Korea in the 1970s and a former U.S. ambassador to Seoul. “It has always been the toughest of the tough targets. In my day, we truly did not know what was going on there.

“The lines of communication are opening up,” Howard said.

Good Friends publishes regular Internet reports on North Korea. One included such headlines as “Food Shortage Lowers the Attendance of a Munitions Factory in Eunduk County” and “15 People Publicly Executed in Onsung County.”

The group has also broken North Korean news, including an explosion in June involving a petroleum pipeline near Pyongyang.

“Someone threw a cigarette without thinking. There were lots of casualties, even deaths,” Kang said. “South Korean intelligence denied the story. They later came back and said we were right.”

National Security System Redesign

Overhaul Of National Security System Sought(Washington Post)…Walter Pincus, Nov 17, 2008, pg A17.

“The simple truth is that the world for which the [U.S.] national security system was designed in 1947 no longer exists. Today’s challenges require better integration of expertise and capabilities from across the government. . . . Instead, departments and agencies are often working against one another, the White House is unable to make timely and well-informed decisions, and there is an over-reliance on military force.”

…The Project on National Security Reform, financed primarily with $6.4 million from Congress, has employed the talents of 25 former senior national security officials and benefited from the advice of a “guiding coalition” that includes high-ranking officials from past administrations. On Dec. 2, the project will make public its recommendations, including steps that President-elect Barack Obama might take after his Jan. 20 inauguration, and draft legislation to change congressional oversight of national security and amend the 1947 National Security Act.