New Weapon Systems; Tradeoffs

Vice Chairman: ‘Exquisite’ Weapons Are Too Expensive, (Pacific Stars and Stripes)…Tom Philpott, Nov 22, 2008.

The military must end its quest for “exquisite” weapon systems that are too costly, take years to design and build, and don’t reach troops fast enough, or in quantities large enough, to address ever-changing threats. The critic here isn’t a Washington think tank or a beltway consultant but Marine Corps Gen. James E. Cartwright, vice chairman of the Joint Chiefs, the U.S. military’s second highest ranking officer.

He said making better choices in buying weapon platforms becomes more critical when growth in defense budgets slows, as Cartwright believes it soon will.

“Building platforms that can have multiple purposes, that can modify very quickly with software, that consume minimal amounts of energy for extended periods of time … are critical,” the vice chairman said.

Regarding worldwide threats, Cartwright said he and other members of the Joint Chiefs believe “we are entering an era of persistent conflict,” stirred by the world’s rising populations seeking shares of “finite resources” such as water, energy and irrigable land.

Global Trends 2025 …

Report Sees Nuclear Arms, Scarce Resources As Seeds Of Global Instability, (Washington Post)…Peter Finn and Walter Pincus, Nov 21, 2008.

The drive for dwindling resources, including energy and water, combined with the spread of nuclear weapons technology could make large swaths of the globe ripe for regional conflicts, some of them potentially devastating, according to a report released by the National Intelligence Council yesterday.

Iran: Nuclear Bomb Materials

Iran Said To Have Nuclear Fuel For One Weapon, (New York Times)…William J. Broad and David E. Sanger, Nov 20, 2008.

Iran has now produced roughly enough nuclear material to make, with added purification, a single atom bomb, according to nuclear experts analyzing the latest report from global atomic inspectors.

“They clearly have enough material for a bomb,” said Richard L. Garwin, a top nuclear physicist who helped invent the hydrogen bomb and has advised Washington for decades. “They know how to do the enrichment. Whether they know how to design a bomb, well, that’s another matter.”

Global Trends 2025

Panel Foresees Lesser U.S. Role(Washington Times)…Nicholas Kralev, Nov 19, 2008.

The top U.S. intelligence panel this week is expected to issue a snapshot of the world in 2025, in a report that predicts fading American economic and military dominance and warns of a nuclear arms race in the Middle East.

The NIC report, a draft copy of which is titled “Global Trends 2025: A Transformed World,” is slated for release as early as Thursday.

Bureaucratic Reform Unlikely, Unless …

Couple of articles below from Paul Light on the need for bureaucratic reform. Could not agree more with the statement attributed to Al Gore that “federal employees are not the problem in poor performance. It is the bureaucracy in which they are trapped.”

In my federal career, I’ve been involved in numerous change management initiative undertaken by new administrations and have yet to see any significant sustained and systemic improvement regarding reforms within the bureaucracy.  It’s not that we don’t have the solutions, its that we lack the leadership within the bureaucracy with support by Congress and the American People to lead the needed change. For example, the Baldrige criteria for performance excellence is a proven approach that provides a systemic method for continually improving and assessing performance. Results in applying the criteria is assessed on a scale from zero to 1,000 points.  I would estimate that a typical bureaucratic system would be consistently assessed every year in the 250-300 point range which may equate to a cost of poor quality at approximately 20% of budget.  Delegating authority to Senior Executive Service (SeS) employees to apply the Baldrige framework as the method for continually improving performance should be part of any major change instigative.

A bureaucracy is a system, the system determines the majority (94-98%) of the results, management owns the system.  Successfully changing a system requires a basic knowledge on the interrelationships  between all the stakeholders, systems, variability and knowledge. These components are an integral part of the Baldrige criteria.  Variability, e.g., knowing the distinction between common and special cause variation, stable and unstable systems, and the two types of mistakes, is the most critical of the components. 

W. Edwards Deming, whose work with the Japanese was considered one  the best calls in business history by Fortune magazine, remarked that if he was to reduce his message to management to just a few words, it all had to do with reducing variation. Unfortunately, this simple but powerful concept is relatively unknown in the U.S. culture as is evidenced by the troubles of the Detroit Big 3.

I’m always optimistic when a new administration takes over but the odds are usually with the status quo. If you always do what you always did, on average, you will usually get what you always got.  Let’s hope this time is different.

Fast Track to Efficiency, New York Times, By Paul C. Light, November 11, 2008

BARACK OBAMA is about to inherit a deeply dysfunctional government: the appointment process is nasty, brutish and not at all short; departments are clogged with red tape and reporting chains to nowhere; the civil service system fails at nearly every task it undertakes; and contractors roam freely under the loosest oversight. To carry out the large-scale bureaucratic reform that is badly needed, Mr. Obama should revitalize the president’s fast-track authority to get reorganization plans through Congress.

Obama Has A Chance To Reverse Long Erosion Of The Federal Service, (Washington Post)…Paul C. Light, Nov 19, 2008. …The past eight years have been a horror to many federal employees. The Bush administration has rarely missed an opportunity to criticize, cut and meddle, and it dismissed the notion that federal employees need more freedom to innovate and learn.

As former vice president Al Gore rightly argued, federal employees are not the problem in poor performance. It is the bureaucracy in which they are trapped.

The Bush administration, however, decided that the best way to reform government was to outsource it. From 2001 to 2005, civilian employment remained at 1.8 million, more or less, while the estimated number of contractor jobs surged from 4.4 million to 7.6 million.

Paul C. Light is a professor at New York University’s Robert F. Wagner School of Public Service and author of “A Government Ill Executed.” He is writing an occasional column on the transition for The Washington Post.

Afghanistan War: Tougher than Iraq

Cartwright: Afghanistan War Tougher Than Iraq
(ArmyTimes.com)…Rick Maze
The vice chairman of the Joint Chiefs warned Monday that U.S. troops and their families should not expect to relax if operations in Iraq wrap up soon. Marine Gen. James Cartwright, speaking Monday in Arlington, Va., before a symposium sponsored by the Military Officers Association of America, predicted the situation in Afghanistan won’t be resolved as easily or quickly as was the case with creating a semblance of political stability in Iraq.

Taliban Says No To Karzai On Offer Of Peace Talks
(Washington Post)…Associated Press
Taliban insurgents rejected an offer of peace talks with Afghan President Hamid Karzai, reiterating Monday their position that there would be no negotiations until foreign troops leave Afghanistan.

Taliban Threatens Attacks In Paris
(Washington Times)…Unattributed
The Taliban threatened to launch attacks in Paris unless France withdraws from Afghanistan, in a video aired by Al Arabiya television on Monday.

Iraq: Fighting Corruption

Premier Of Iraq Is Quietly Firing Fraud Monitors(New York Times)…James Glanz and Riyadh Mohammed

The government of Prime Minister Nuri Kamal al-Maliki is systematically dismissing Iraqi oversight officials, who were installed to fight corruption in Iraqi ministries by order of the American occupation administration, which had hoped to bring Western standards of accountability to the notoriously opaque and graft-ridden bureaucracy here.