Economics: Mortgages

Blame Game Gets Nasty When It Targets the Poor, By Michelle Singletary, Sunday, October 12, 2008; Page F01

Community Reinvestment Act of 1977, or CRA.

CRA specifies that financial institutions cannot be forced to make loans or investments or provide services inconsistent with safe and sound banking practices.

No sir, it wasn’t lending under CRA rules that took down the mortgage industry. It was greedy, reckless banking executives, lending officers and mortgage brokers who were supposed to properly screen borrowers and apply prudent loan underwriting standards. It was lax and inadequate federal and state regulation that allowed exotic and predatory mortgages to be sold to borrowers.

Economic: "diminution of U.S. power"

Financial Crisis May Diminish American Sway
(Wall Street Journal)…Jay Solomon and Siobhan Gorman, Oct 17, 2008.

…Many nations, from Japan to Israel to European allies, continue to rely on Washington’s power to guarantee regional stability. Asked Wednesday night if the U.S. was in decline, Defense Secretary Robert Gates responded after a recent tour of allied nations: “No. … Every one of the countries wants to have better relations with the United States. They still see the country as the last, best hope.”

Even before the current crisis, U.S. intelligence agencies had begun projecting a significant diminution of U.S. power over the next 15 years. That is a key assumption in the long-range assessment of global trends — known as the 2025 Project — that the Office of the Director of National Intelligence has been preparing for the next administration.

Economic: Not Everyone Should Own a Home

POST: It Takes an Outsider Oct 6, 2008. Matt May

I’ve been disappointed in all the op-eds purporting to address the “root cause” of the mortgage mess and the resulting Wall Street collapse. And there have been plenty. But the reason I’ve been disappointed is because none of them get at the root. I know this because I can ask a further “why?” to whatever cause is trounced out: mark-to-market valuations, credit default swap complexity, indecipherable information, you name it.

And then I read an opinion by a columnist for The Australian by the name of Janet Albrechtensen, in today’s Wall Street Journal, entitled “Not Everyone Should Own a Home.” And she nailed it.

Terrorism: Consensus on Next Steps

New Consensus On Terrorism
(Washington Times)…John McLaughlin, Oct 6, 2008.  One of the major tasks for our next president is repairing the frayed consensus on how to deal with terrorism.

John McLaughlin is a senior fellow at the Johns Hopkins School of Advanced International Studies and served as deputy director and acting director of Central Intelligence from 2000-2004.

Human Terrain Teams: Winning Hearts and Minds

Kansas City Star
October 14, 2008
Pg. 1

Army Takes Human Terrain To Heart

By Lee Hill Kavanaugh, The Kansas City Star

Cleo Caban, 28, of New York takes a deep breath and walks a few steps into the Leavenworth County register of deeds. Then he stops, whispering: “What do I ask?”

“You’ll know. Just talk to her,” says Tom Bevier, 57, from North Carolina.

The two are on a mission, a practice run for the work they’ll soon be doing in Iraq.

“Hi. We’re new to the area, and we’re also going to be deploying soon. Do you mind if we talk a little?” Caban asks the clerk behind the counter.

And before long, the clerk, Melissa Peters of Lansing, is chattering away.

She tells them who are the major families who have lived longest in the area, where the locals go for fun, how the mortgage crisis is affecting Leavenworth, historical places that are no more, which schools she believes are best and perceptions of the police.

Caban, an Arabic linguist, casts a few glances at Bevier, a former Special Forces soldier who is smiling wide. These are good details for their mission — really good stuff.

The clerk never knew she was talking to a team from the Army’s Human Terrain System.

The two-year-old Human Terrain program isn’t very high tech. Instead, its heart is old-fashioned talking, combining information from conversations and academic expertise to sort the material in databases.

Plowing the human terrain means understanding people by learning about their tribes and clans, the local taboos, the special celebrations. Figuring out how to avoid angering them because we misunderstood them in the first place, says Rick Swisher, a Human Terrain instructor and a member of the first team into Afghanistan.

For example, how many times has a wedding in Iraq — where men fire guns into the air in celebration — been perceived as sniper fire by the military? Lots, he says. The whole point is to look for nonlethal solutions.

“Every time we pull the trigger, we’ve failed.”

Twenty-six teams of from five to nine people are in Iraq and Afghanistan now, working with Army brigades. More classes are training for staggered deployments next year, studying everything from combat first aid to “windshield ethnology” (observing groups from inside a vehicle) to the rise and fall of different cultures in Afghanistan and Iraq. Classes are taught by military and academics.

Within the next few years, the number of Human Terrain teams will double around the world, deploying into Africa, Asia and Latin America.

Word about the Army’s program is spreading, says Lt. George Mace of Lenexa. He was on the first Human Terrain team to Iraq and now is a spokesman for the program.

“The institutional knowledge that the teams are bringing to the units is a jumpstart to what’s happening in an area,” Mace says. “Other services are noticing and asking us now if they can join the teams too. We are looking to open this up.”

The Pentagon believes the program is the key to countering insurgents wherever they emerge in the world.

And it all starts in the basement of a strip mall in downtown Leavenworth.

• • •

Behind the Delaware Landing Mall, two double doors lead to stairs to the basement where a coffee pot brews nearly all day long. Here, several large classrooms can seat 30-40 students. More classes are held across the street in a Kansas City Kansas Community College building.

Every new group begins its four months of training with one day listening to former team members talk about their experiences.

One of those instructors is Swisher, who was a Special Forces soldier for 27 years. No touchy-feely stuff for him, he says, with regard to the enemy.

But everything changed when the Army turned to new ways of fighting an insurgency.

Counterinsurgency approaches call for getting to know a foreign people not as “bad guys” but as people with a culture thousands of years older than Americans’, building relationships with them and finding out what they need.

“We’ve always said, ‘Winning hearts and minds,’ but I like to say, ‘Understanding hearts and minds.’ And let them (the people in Iraq and Afghanistan) define it, too, not us.”

Definitely a new way of fighting the war, he says, “but also the most rewarding thing I’ve ever done.”

Classes prepare for their deployments by learning about the histories and customs of the countries they’ll be working in for a year. Students learn marketing techniques and how to observe people like a social scientist, when to pull back because something’s not right, and knowing clearly what roles Human Terrain teams play if they witness something nefarious.

Many here have seen war already. They’re either in the military or are veterans. The younger faces, mostly women, are graduate students with master’s or doctorate degrees in the social sciences.

The program mostly wants anthropologists, but it also includes historians, psychologists, political scientists, linguists and journalists. Human Terrain program managers recruit nationwide, looking for people with the right combination of education and personality.

The money is pretty good: For academics, the pay begins at $100,000 a year, with some making double that for hazardous duty. Of course, they don’t get weekends or holidays off. The job is seven days a week, sometimes 24 hours at a time, and the program requires a one-year commitment.

The skill sets in each team are varied. Military members plan missions, provide security and help bridge the gap between civilians and military. Military members make less, based on their pay grade. But they aren’t required to serve a year on a team.

Not everyone will leave the relative safety of a base. Some members stay behind to analyze and catalog information from the field reports. Still others will work in the “reachback center” in Leavenworth, taking computer reports from Afghanistan and transferring the information into hundreds of categories such as economic issues, agricultural production, public communications, social structures and key regional personalities. An additional 20 researchers in Oyster Point, Va., do the same thing with information from Iraq.

The information is archived in a database available to other Human Terrain teams and brigades. All but a few of the reports also are available online to scholars, college students and nongovernmental organizations.

The goal is to make sure that what the teams and the troops learn is not lost when they rotate home.

• • •

Controversies swirl about the program.

Some concerns come from the academic world. Other criticisms come from skeptical service members.

Some have called Human Terrain teams too liberal, too naive. Others fear the program will be used for intelligence purposes. Some worry they’ll ignore ethical guidelines that anthropologists vow to maintain.

But Human Terrain members say they are neither naive, nor working as intelligence agents.

They know that in Iraq or Afghanistan, they can be hit just as hard as any other military unit. Two members have died already. Teams must be just as vigilant about security as any other military unit, but still do their research, Swisher says.

He warns the classes again and again that when they are briefing their commanders in the field, they must be vigilant against telling them what they should do.

“There’s a line there, and you cannot cross it,” he cautions. “If you do, you’ve just made yourself a target.”

Some anthropologists worried about the program have used words like “targeting” and “mission creep.” They fear repeating history. In World War II, some anthropologists spied for the military. In Vietnam, some anthropologists helped target 26,000 people, later killed, as possible Viet Cong.

To keep this from happening again, the Network of Concerned Anthropologists formed last year and asked their peers to sign a pledge that they would not participate in the program.

Cher
yl White, 35, who has a doctorate in anthropology from the University of Florida, shakes her head at the controversy.

She acknowledges that it did cause her to wrestle with whether to join the Human Terrain program.

She feels good about her choice now. She will be deployed next year.

“I see this as applied anthropology. It’s what I believe in.

“… This is my chance to make the world a better place.”

Accountability: Defense Spending – DFAS

Crisis Shows Efficiency Need, Pentagon’s Jonas Says, By Tony Capaccio, Bloomberg News, September 26, 2008

The U.S. financial crisis may lead to lower defense budgets and more public demand for accountability over spending, Pentagon Comptroller Tina Jonas said.

“Any crisis of this nature is going to affect — must affect — other federal spending,” Jonas, the Defense Department’s top money official since July 2004, said today in an interview on her last day in office.

Congress is weighing a $700 billion rescue package to help the economy as lenders cope with a credit crunch triggered by declining home prices and bad loans. Any analysis that suggests defense budgets will escape impact is too sanguine, she said.

“The broader commitment to national security is there to keep our forces ready and capable, but I think it’s yet to be seen what the potential impact is on future defense budgets,” she said of the crisis. “You cannot look at defense by itself. It is a subset of our macro financial picture.”

Jonas has focused on trying to make accounting more transparent at the Pentagon, which for years was unable to have its books successfully audited. Now about a third of its $3.4 trillion in assets and liabilities can pass a federally approved audit, a percentage that she said will reach two-thirds in 2009. Military spending under the Bush administration has increased almost 43 percent since 2000 when adjusted for inflation.

“The spotlight will be on how the government manages its money and that will include us” in the military, she said.

Jonas said the Pentagon’s books should live up to the standards of Sarbanes-Oxley, the 2002 law that tightened scrutiny of financial results after corporate accounting scandals. “We should be accountable just like any other private organization,” she said.

Making two-thirds of the Pentagon’s books able to be audited by next year is “substantial and serious progress,” she said. “The remaining third will come with the next administration.”

A clean audit for the Pentagon means “we know where our money is and where it is going in way that is done on an accrual basis and not a cash basis,” Jonas said. “That means if I write a vendor a check, that transaction can be traced — all the pieces needed to document the correctness of the transaction are validated according to generally accepted accounting standards.”

Jonas, 48, is a graduate of Arizona State University and Georgetown University. She was sworn in as comptroller in July 2004 after serving as the Federal Bureau of Investigation’s chief financial officer and earlier as Pentagon deputy undersecretary for financial management. She also worked for four years at the Office of Management and Budget.

Jonas reports to work Sept. 29 as director of operations, planning and analysis for United Technologies Corp.’s Sikorsky Aircraft unit in Stratford, Connecticut, said company spokesman Paul Jackson.

National Security Strategy Must Combine Diplomacy, Might And Strong Alliances
(Philadelphia Inquirer)…Rudy deLeon and Winny Chen, Sept 28, 2008.

…But our 44th president will have a unique opportunity and a clear duty to steer the United States toward new and progressive national-security priorities. That effort should begin with a new National Security Strategy – one that integrates a strong U.S. military posture with diplomacy, economic assistance, and cooperation with U.S. allies.

Odds of nuclear attack in U.S. at 50% next 10 yrs?

On Nov. 4, Remember 9/11, (New York Times)…Jeffrey Goldberg

The next president must do one thing, and one thing only, if he is to be judged a success: He must prevent Al Qaeda, or a Qaeda imitator, from gaining control of a nuclear device and detonating it in America.

Many proliferation experts I have spoken to judge the chance of such a detonation to be as high as 50 percent in the next 10 years. I am an optimist, so I put the chance at 10 percent to 20 percent.