Category: Technology

Iraq: Flawed Intelligence, Prediction Markets

The use of Prediction Markets within the Intelligence Community may be helpful in improving the quality of intellgience. Regarding the WMDs, unlikely to have gotten a 100% of the analysts to bet that WMDs would be found.  This may have led to more in-depth understanding and awareness on the assumptions and probablilities associated with the respective assessments.

Intelligence Chief Blames War Policy, Los Angeles Times, December 10, 2008

WASHINGTON, D.C.–Gently admonishing President Bush, the nation’s newly retired chief intelligence analyst suggested that the Iraq war was as much the failure of policymakers as it was the flawed intelligence on which they relied.

Bush told ABC News last week that his biggest regret was “the intelligence failure in Iraq.”

“I wish the intelligence had been different, I guess,” he said.

Thomas Fingar, until this week the deputy director of national intelligence for analysis, declined to directly address the president’s swipe. But he said: “I learned something a long time ago in this town. There are only two possibilities: policy success and intelligence failure.”

Thomas Fingar, who stepped down Dec. 1 from the post of deputy director of national intelligence and as chairman of the National Intelligence Council,

Banning Nuclear Weapons: "Transforming the image we see in the mirror"

A laudable goal. To paraphrase the argument against banning handguns, “nuclear weapons don’t kill people, people making the decision to use nuclear weapons is what kills people.”  Desire for nulcear weapons motivated by power, fear, insecurity,  mistrust, and survival.   

“In the final analysis, any contemplation of war must return to  the nature of humanity, which yet stands as the root cause of war and the wellspring of History’s inestimable tragedy.  Throughout time, governments, like wars, have both flowed from and reflected human nature in both positive and negative manifestation. If we are to overcome the massive violence that has typified modern civilization for five centuries, our ultimate challenge is nothing more or less than transforming the image we see in the mirror. That, however, is a task that lends itself to no purely political solution.”  — Bruce Porter, War and the Rise of The State.

Leaders Seek Ban On Nuclear Weapons, (Philadelphia Inquirer)…Barry Schweid, Associated Press

A new international group committed to eliminating nuclear weapons over the next 25 years has enlisted scores of world leaders as its campaign gets under way at a conference in Paris on Tuesday.

Unmanned Aircraft: Reaper – "Thinking" Ahead

Not uncommon for the military to develop technologies that will eventually be applied within the private/commercial sector.

Delivering Devastation, (Washington Times)…Sara A. Carter

Unmanned aircraft controlled from U.S. fly over Afghanistan, Iraq on ‘kill’ missions.

Air Force officials say that the Predator and Reaper are just the first in a revolution in cyber and warfare technology that will take pilots out of the skies and put them behind computers and joysticks.

“We believe we’ll have a computer with as much computing power as a human no later than 2012,” Gen. Peterson said in reference to meetings he had with IBM and other computer technology firms. “We want the aircraft to initially think through the problem and offer the pilot a couple of solutions to choose from.”

Although the technology is still being developed, he said he hopes that one day advanced aircraft will be able to “plan ahead” and evaluate changes in the mission if required.

Defense Dept: Supply Chain and Vulnerabilities

Inside The Ring, By Bill Gertz, Washington Times, December 4, 2008, Pg. B1

Pentagon suppliers

The chairman of a congressional China commission said the panel is concerned that the Pentagon’s reliance on Chinese suppliers has threatened U.S. computers, weapons systems and equipment with sabotage or other remote electronic tampering.

“On defense supply chain, the commissioners remain concerned about the integrity of the defense supply chain, and we are not sure that the defense logistics system managers know what they are getting from China,” said Larry Wortzel, co-chairman of the U.S. China-Economic Security Review Commission. “It is not secure,” he said of the current Pentagon supply chain.

Mr. Wortzel, in an interview, was commenting on one little-noticed finding of the commission in its report made public Nov. 20. The report to Congress warned that widespread Chinese government computer hacking poses risks because of Chinese-supplied parts in U.S. computer networks.

“Components in these computers and networks are manufactured overseas – many of them in China,” the report said. “At least in theory, this equipment is vulnerable to tampering by Chinese security services, such as implanting malicious code that could be remotely activated on command and place U.S. systems or the data they contain at risk of destruction or manipulation.”

In one case, the Pentagon was found to be using hundreds of counterfeit computer routers made in China. “This suggests that at least in part, Defense Department computer systems and networks may be vulnerable to malicious action that could destroy or manipulate information they contain,” the report said.

Mr. Wortzel said the Pentagon logistics agencies in charge of buying the Chinese-made parts gave the commission the “runaround” when panel members asked about the problem.

“Our recommendation is that Congress haul them in and have a classified hearing on this,” Mr. Wortzel said.

Chinese Embassy spokesman Wang Baodong could not be reached for comment. However, Chinese Foreign Ministry official Qin Gang said in a statement Nov. 24 that the commission views China “through tinted lens” and is undermining U.S.-China cooperation by “tarnishing and attacking China deliberately and misleading the general public.”

Cyber-Attack: Defense Dept Computers

Cyber-Attack On Defense Department Computers Raises Concerns, (Los Angeles Times)…Julian E. Barnes, Nov 28, 2008.

Senior military leaders took the exceptional step of briefing President Bush this week on a severe and widespread electronic attack on Defense Department computers that may have originated in Russia — an incursion that posed unusual concern among commanders and raised potential implications for national security.

The invasive software, known as agent.btz, has circulated among nongovernmental U.S. computers for months. But only recently has it affected the Pentagon’s networks. It is not clear whether the version responsible for the cyber-intrusion of classified networks is the same as the one affecting other computer systems.

The malware is able to spread to any flash drive plugged into an infected computer. The risk of spreading the malware to other networks prompted the military to ban the drives.

Battlefield Robots, Ethical Decision Making, Science Fiction

A Soldier, Taking Orders From Its Ethical Judgment Center, (New York Times)…Cornelia Dean

In the heat of battle, their minds clouded by fear, anger or vengefulness, even the best-trained soldiers can act in ways that violate the Geneva Conventions or battlefield rules of engagement. Now some researchers suggest that robots could do better.

He said South Korea and Israel were among countries already deploying armed robot border guards. In an interview, he said there was “a headlong rush” to develop battlefield robots that make their own decisions about when to attack.

“It is not my belief that an unmanned system will be able to be perfectly ethical in the battlefield,” Dr. Arkin wrote in his report (PDF), “but I am convinced that they can perform more ethically than human soldiers are capable of.”

The Three Laws of Robotics

In science fiction, the Three Laws of Robotics are a set of three rules written by Isaac Asimov, which almost all positronic robots appearing in his fiction must obey. Introduced in his 1942 short story “Runaround“, although foreshadowed in a few earlier stories, the Laws state the following:

  1. A robot may not injure a human being or, through inaction, allow a human being to come to harm.
  2. A robot must obey orders given to it by human beings, except where such orders would conflict with the First Law.
  3. A robot must protect its own existence as long as such protection does not conflict with the First or Second Law.

Cyber Security DoD

Pentagon Bans External Flash Drives, (Washington Times)…Unattributed, Nov 22, 2008

The Pentagon has banned, at least temporarily, the use of external computer flash drives because of a virus threat detected on Defense Department networks.

Although defense officials would not publicly confirm the ban, messages were sent to department employees informing them of the new restrictions. As part of the ban, the Pentagon was collecting any of the small flash drives that were purchased or provided by the department to workers, according to a message distributed to employees.

Pentagon spokesman Bryan Whitman would provide no details on the virus Friday, but he described it as a “global virus” that has been the subject of public alerts.

The Pentagon has acknowledged that its vast computer network is scanned or probed by outsiders millions of times each day. Military leaders have consistently warned of potential threats from a variety of sources including countries such as China, terrorists and self-styled cybervigilantes.

Anti Sniper Technology

Soldiers In Iraq And Afghanistan To Get Life Saving Anti-Sniper Device, (London Daily Telegraph)…Richard Alleyne, Nov 22, 2008.

British and American forces fighting the guerilla insurgence in Iraq and Afghanistan could soon be protected by an anti-sniper device that can pinpoint the position of the shooter within a fraction of a second.

The palm-sized device designed by Qinetiq, the British defence firm that was once the government research laboratories, is pinned to the uniform and uses acoustic technology to calculate the exact position of the rifle fire.