The use of Prediction Markets within the Intelligence Community may be helpful in improving the quality of intellgience. Regarding the WMDs, unlikely to have gotten a 100% of the analysts to bet that WMDs would be found. This may have led to more in-depth understanding and awareness on the assumptions and probablilities associated with the respective assessments.
Intelligence Chief Blames War Policy, Los Angeles Times, December 10, 2008
WASHINGTON, D.C.–Gently admonishing President Bush, the nation’s newly retired chief intelligence analyst suggested that the Iraq war was as much the failure of policymakers as it was the flawed intelligence on which they relied.
Bush told ABC News last week that his biggest regret was “the intelligence failure in Iraq.”
“I wish the intelligence had been different, I guess,” he said.
Thomas Fingar, until this week the deputy director of national intelligence for analysis, declined to directly address the president’s swipe. But he said: “I learned something a long time ago in this town. There are only two possibilities: policy success and intelligence failure.”
Thomas Fingar, who stepped down Dec. 1 from the post of deputy director of national intelligence and as chairman of the National Intelligence Council,
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