South Korea: Nomalization of Tours

USFK Begins Process Of Normalizing Tours, (Pacific Stars and Stripes)…Ashley Rowland

U.S. Forces Korea eventually will allow half of the 28,500 troops stationed in South Korea to serve here with their families, a dramatic change in an area once considered too remote, and too dangerous for families because of the threat from an unstable North Korea.

As a first step toward what the military calls “tour normalization,” USFK roughly will double the number of command-sponsored slots in the next year — to 4,350 in Seoul, Osan, Pyeongtaek, Daegu and Chinhae.

As many as 2,100 troops in Area I, just south of the heavily-guarded border between North Korea and South Korea, also will get two-year command sponsorships, U.S. Forces Korea commander Gen. Walter Sharp said Wednesday.

“I think it adds deterrence value for North Korea,” Sharp said. “It says: ‘OK, we’re comfortable enough in our capabilities, we’re comfortable that we’re bringing families over here, and you better not miscalculate.”

About the same number of troops in Area I, officially called U.S. Army Garrison-Red Cloud, have already brought their families to South Korea, but haven’t received family housing or cost-of-living allowances because they aren’t command sponsored.

Dr. David Chu, undersecretary of defense for personnel and readiness, signed a memorandum on Dec. 1 that approves USFK’s request for the shift, and authorizes changes to the Joint Federal Travel Regulation, which sets tour lengths for U.S. military installations around the world.

Most of those 28,500 U.S. troops in South Korea serve on one-year unaccompanied tours.

Under the new policy, troops serving in accompanied billets will stay for three years in all areas except Area 1. Accompanied tours to Area I will be set at two years.

Unaccompanied tours for most troops will remain at one year, but some “key personnel” will serve 2-year unaccompanied tours, USFK said.

Services may begin extending tour lengths now but are required to submit plans for implementation to Chu by March 1 USFK spokeswoman Col. Jane Crichton said Wednesday.

The move comes after two USFK commanders — Sharp and his predecessor, retired Gen. B.B. Bell — pushed Congress, the Department of Defense and South Korea to approve extended tour lengths. Longer accompanied tours are standard in Japan, Europe and at many U.S. bases in the rest of the world.

Sharp said there was little resistance, but cited many questions among Defense Department officials — “a lot of: ‘How are you going to do that? Do you really have the infrastructure to do that?’ ”

Bell, who retired in June, began lobbying for normalized tours about three years ago, saying the yearlong unaccompanied tours were outdated and that South Korea was modern and safe enough for families. Accompanied tours also would reduce stress on servicemembers who had to leave their families behind, he said.

Sharp said having longer tours “greatly increases” USFK’s military capabilities, and will let him have a more cohesive staff in place as he approaches the critical 2012 transfer of military operational control on the peninsula to South Korea’s military leaders.

“I don’t have to train new people every year,” Sharp said.

Sharp said he didn’t know how long it would take to reach full normalization, but Bell predicted in May that it could take 10 to 15 years.

Crichton said the changes to tour lengths in South Korea will affect worldwide troop rotations, and could take awhile to implement. Services with a small presence in South Korea, like the Marines, may be able to increase tour lengths and command sponsorships faster than those with larger numbers, like the Army, she said.

Sharp said the new policy will affect mostly incoming servicemembers, but those already stationed here can apply for the extended accompanied tours.

He said the pace of normalization depends on how quickly the United States and South Korea pay for the facilities — particularly schools — needed to house and support families. The two countries are in discussions to determine how much each will pay toward the cost of stationing U.S. troops here.

South Korea now pays about 41 percent under a two-year agreement between the two countries. Before negotiations began this year, U.S. officials called for South Korea to increase its support to 50 percent and to have a longer agreement.

Sharp said the longer tours also mean that more middle-grade officers and noncommissioned officers — ranks in high demand in Iraq and Afghanistan — could be stationed in South Korea.

Under the old system, an NCO or middle-grade officer who deploys to the Middle East probably would not be stationed in South Korea immediately before or after deployment, because troops can’t be forced to serve back-to-back unaccompanied tours.

“Effectively, he’s not deployable to Iraq or Afghanistan for a three-year period,” Sharp said.

With the new system, the number of troops available for deployment to Iraq or Afghanistan won’t be affected by increasing tour lengths here, he said. After full normalization, South Korea-based units might be deployable to combat zones, the general said. During a news conference Thursday, he said deployed troops’ families may remain in South Korea.

Sharp said he expects the Defense Department to put more importance — and possibly more money — into the U.S. military presence in South Korea after the 2009 Quadrennial Defense Review, held every four years to assess U.S. military strategic direction.

U.S. bases in South Korea are a key point of its presence in the strategic Northeast Asia region.

“Korea’s a very important part of the world for us,” he said. “It will be after 2012.”

DNA Profiles: Terrorists

Pentagon Database Swells To 80,000 DNA Profiles, (USA Today)…Peter Eisler, Dec 12, 2008

The Pentagon has catalogued 80,000 DNA profiles in an obscure database that holds genetic information on foreign terrorism suspects and detainees in Iraq and Afghanistan, according to Defense officials and documents.

Iran: Drop in IEDs

U.S. Says Drop In Iraq Deaths Tied To Iranian Arms Cutback, (Los Angeles Times)…Julian E. Barnes

A marked decline in the number of explosive devices coming into Iraq from neighboring Iran has helped reduce the frequency of deadly attacks against U.S. service members, a top U.S. general said Thursday.

Iran: Air Defense

U.S. Officials Say Iran Contracted For Russian SA-20 SAMs. (Aerospace Daily & Defense Report)…David A. Fulghum and Douglas Barrie, Dec 11, 2008

Senior U.S. government officials independently confirm that Iran is now “on contract” for the Russian SA-20 Gargoyle strategic SAM system, irrespective of Kremlin protestations to the contrary.

Tehran’s deployment of such a system would mark a step-up in capability and considerably improve the country’s ability to defend its controversial nuclear facilities, where the West remains concerned that Iran is pursuing a nuclear weapons capability.

Cyber Attack: Pentagon Systems, Thumb Drives

Cyber Attack On DoD Linked To Russia, (FNC)…Jennifer Griffin, Dec 10, 2008.

Fox News has learned that the cyber attack on the U.S. military’s classified information network has been traced to a front company run by former Russian FSB or KGB spies. The attack led the Pentagon to ban the use of all thumb drives because that is how the worm got into the classified military network.

The intrusion was discovered, we’ve learned, by the U.S. military in Afghanistan. The attack came through the local internet service provider which the Afghans, under U.S. supervision, contracted out to this front company run by former Russian spies. The U.S. military relies on this internet service provider. Today, Michael Chertoff warned the Russians had already used cyber warfare in Georgia.

MICHAEL CHERTOFF [Homeland Security Secretary]: There was a preceding effort at denial of service or wave of denial of service attacks by, let us say, sympathizers to the Russian side of the dispute that was a prelude and an adjunct to the military attack where Russian troops entered Georgia.

GRIFFIN: Chertoff added the U.S. needs a doctrine to decide when a cyber attack is an act of war, a view echoed by the deputy defense secretary.

GORDON ENGLAND [Deputy Defense Secretary]: This larger future threat will necessarily require DOD to change its thinking and its planning, much like the first use of gun powder changed the nature of warfare centuries ago.

GRIFFIN: Russia has denied any involvement in this attack, and some here in the Pentagon are concerned that those former Russian spies may have been working for someone else. Brit?

HUME: All right, Jennifer, thank you.

Iraq: Flawed Intelligence, Prediction Markets

The use of Prediction Markets within the Intelligence Community may be helpful in improving the quality of intellgience. Regarding the WMDs, unlikely to have gotten a 100% of the analysts to bet that WMDs would be found.  This may have led to more in-depth understanding and awareness on the assumptions and probablilities associated with the respective assessments.

Intelligence Chief Blames War Policy, Los Angeles Times, December 10, 2008

WASHINGTON, D.C.–Gently admonishing President Bush, the nation’s newly retired chief intelligence analyst suggested that the Iraq war was as much the failure of policymakers as it was the flawed intelligence on which they relied.

Bush told ABC News last week that his biggest regret was “the intelligence failure in Iraq.”

“I wish the intelligence had been different, I guess,” he said.

Thomas Fingar, until this week the deputy director of national intelligence for analysis, declined to directly address the president’s swipe. But he said: “I learned something a long time ago in this town. There are only two possibilities: policy success and intelligence failure.”

Thomas Fingar, who stepped down Dec. 1 from the post of deputy director of national intelligence and as chairman of the National Intelligence Council,

nKorea: Talks and Hunger

North Korea: New Round Of Nuclear Talks Under Way, (New York Times)…Andrew Jacobs, A new round of talks aimed at persuading North Korea to discontinue its nuclear program began in Beijing on Monday.

Hunger Stalks 40% Of Population, (Washington Times)…Unattributed
United Nations agencies reported that nearly 40 percent of North Korea’s population will need food assistance in the coming year, largely because of critical shortages of fertilizer and fuel.

Pakistan, India, Afghanistan: Scenario

Opinion: Plans Of Attack, (Washington Post)…Richard A. Clarke

…To most of the world, the Mumbai massacre seems inexplicable and random, like the periodic devastation caused by typhoons or tornadoes, or simply pointless, just killing for killing’s sake. But the attack was neither random nor pointless. The carnage in Mumbai was goal-oriented, an attempt to advance an overall strategy that is being ruthlessly pursued by the Islamist radical network.

Seven years after 9/11, the United States has neither eliminated the threat from al-Qaeda nor secured Afghanistan, where bin Laden’s terrorists were once headquartered. To accomplish these two tasks, we must now eliminate the new terrorist safe haven in Pakistan. But that will require effective action from a weak and riven Pakistani government. It might also depend upon dealing with the long-standing India-Pakistan rivalry. On balance, al-Qaeda’s agenda for 2009 looks to be the easier one.

Richard A. Clarke served as White House counterterrorism coordinator under presidents Bill Clinton and George W. Bush. His most recent book is “Your Government Failed You: Breaking the Cycle of National Security Disasters.”