nKorea: Nuclear Pact, Compliance

U.S. Takes N. Korea’s Word On Nuclear Pact, (Washington Times)…Nicholas Kralev, Nov 24, 2008.

Current and former U.S. officials say the Bush administration has put unprecedented trust in North Korea’s regime – a charter member of its “axis of evil” – and accepted verbal agreements that Pyongyang has disputed, with potentially unsettling implications for arms control. 

Most recently, the administration has taken as sufficient an oral commitment by North Korea to allow sampling and other scientific activities to verify its nuclear history – a pledge the North says it never made.

The Flight That Wasn’t, (Newsweek)…Mark Hosenball and Christian Caryl, Dec 1, 2008.

Only weeks before dropping North Korea from an official U.S. blacklist of countries that support terrorism, the Bush administration apparently thwarted the transfer of missile parts (possibly including gyroscopes for guidance systems) from Pyongyang to Iran, U.S. officials tell NEWSWEEK.

New Weapon Systems; Tradeoffs

Vice Chairman: ‘Exquisite’ Weapons Are Too Expensive, (Pacific Stars and Stripes)…Tom Philpott, Nov 22, 2008.

The military must end its quest for “exquisite” weapon systems that are too costly, take years to design and build, and don’t reach troops fast enough, or in quantities large enough, to address ever-changing threats. The critic here isn’t a Washington think tank or a beltway consultant but Marine Corps Gen. James E. Cartwright, vice chairman of the Joint Chiefs, the U.S. military’s second highest ranking officer.

He said making better choices in buying weapon platforms becomes more critical when growth in defense budgets slows, as Cartwright believes it soon will.

“Building platforms that can have multiple purposes, that can modify very quickly with software, that consume minimal amounts of energy for extended periods of time … are critical,” the vice chairman said.

Regarding worldwide threats, Cartwright said he and other members of the Joint Chiefs believe “we are entering an era of persistent conflict,” stirred by the world’s rising populations seeking shares of “finite resources” such as water, energy and irrigable land.

Iran: Nuclear Bomb Materials

Iran Said To Have Nuclear Fuel For One Weapon, (New York Times)…William J. Broad and David E. Sanger, Nov 20, 2008.

Iran has now produced roughly enough nuclear material to make, with added purification, a single atom bomb, according to nuclear experts analyzing the latest report from global atomic inspectors.

“They clearly have enough material for a bomb,” said Richard L. Garwin, a top nuclear physicist who helped invent the hydrogen bomb and has advised Washington for decades. “They know how to do the enrichment. Whether they know how to design a bomb, well, that’s another matter.”

Global Trends 2025

Panel Foresees Lesser U.S. Role(Washington Times)…Nicholas Kralev, Nov 19, 2008.

The top U.S. intelligence panel this week is expected to issue a snapshot of the world in 2025, in a report that predicts fading American economic and military dominance and warns of a nuclear arms race in the Middle East.

The NIC report, a draft copy of which is titled “Global Trends 2025: A Transformed World,” is slated for release as early as Thursday.

Afghanistan War: Tougher than Iraq

Cartwright: Afghanistan War Tougher Than Iraq
(ArmyTimes.com)…Rick Maze
The vice chairman of the Joint Chiefs warned Monday that U.S. troops and their families should not expect to relax if operations in Iraq wrap up soon. Marine Gen. James Cartwright, speaking Monday in Arlington, Va., before a symposium sponsored by the Military Officers Association of America, predicted the situation in Afghanistan won’t be resolved as easily or quickly as was the case with creating a semblance of political stability in Iraq.

Taliban Says No To Karzai On Offer Of Peace Talks
(Washington Post)…Associated Press
Taliban insurgents rejected an offer of peace talks with Afghan President Hamid Karzai, reiterating Monday their position that there would be no negotiations until foreign troops leave Afghanistan.

Taliban Threatens Attacks In Paris
(Washington Times)…Unattributed
The Taliban threatened to launch attacks in Paris unless France withdraws from Afghanistan, in a video aired by Al Arabiya television on Monday.

Strategy for the long haul

Obama Administration Faces Hard Choices In Managing Ground Troops, (GovExec.com)…Katherine McIntire Peters, Nov 17, 2008.

The Center for Strategic and Budgetary Assessments on Monday released three new reports aimed at informing the next administration as it makes difficult decisions in shaping a new military strategy.

The nonpartisan center’s analysts laid out detailed accounts of the recruiting, equipping and organizational challenges confronting the ground services and recommended the Obama administration cut some weapons programs, reorganize special operations forces and reconsider plans to substantially increase the size of the Army.

The reports were the latest installments in the center’s “Strategy for the Long Haul,” a comprehensive look at how the services are poised to face the most likely strategic challenges in the coming years. The 15-volume collection of monographs seeks to inform the Pentagon’s upcoming Quadrennial Defense Review, which will get under way in early 2009, as well as guide the Obama administration.

NKorea: Endless bargainers

Shultz: Bush Defense Policy Should Stay…Donald Lambro, Nov 18, 2008.

In the wide-ranging interview, Mr. Shultz also said setting a troop-withdrawal date in Iraq is dangerous, and that North Korea’s refusal to let international inspectors conduct tests for nuclear materials is part of a pattern.

“They are endless bargainers. There is no such thing as a firm agreement with them. You make an agreement, you make a compromise and then they immediately break it in some fashion,” Mr. Shultz said.

Securing the Bomb

Report On Nuclear Security Urges Prompt Global Action, (Washington Post)…David E. Hoffman, Nov 18, 2008.

When armed men attacked South Africa’s most closely guarded nuclear facility a year ago, they penetrated the detection systems at the perimeter, cut through an electrified fence and broke into the emergency control center, shooting one worker there in the chest before escaping.

The Pelindaba facility holds hundreds of pounds of weapons-grade, highly enriched uranium. Although the attackers last November did not steal any of it, the assault highlights what a new report describes as the increasingly global challenge of keeping nuclear materials from falling into the hands of terrorists.

…The report, “Securing the Bomb 2008,” the seventh annual study from Harvard University’s Belfer Center for Science and International Affairs, is to be released today. The study was commissioned by the Nuclear Threat Initiative, a nonproliferation organization co-chaired by former senator Sam Nunn of Georgia.

In an agenda for the incoming administration, the report urges “a global campaign to lock down every nuclear weapon and every significant stock of potential nuclear bomb material worldwide as rapidly as that can possibly be done.” The report also calls for the appointment of a senior White House official with daily responsibility for preventing a nuclear terrorist attack.

nKorea: Criticism on nuclear inspections

Bush Criticized On Iraq, N.Korea, (Washington Times)…Sara A. Carter and Nicholas Kralev, Nov 18, 2008.

President Bush’s efforts to resolve two major foreign-policy challenges in his waning days in office have prompted double-barreled criticisms, with leaders here and abroad questioning concessions his administration has made to Iraq and North Korea.

On the North Korean front, the Bush administration is drawing fire for removing North Korea from the U.S. list of terrorist-sponsoring nations without obtaining a firm agreement allowing outside inspectors to take samples from nuclear sites.

Here, public criticism has come from South Korea and Japan over an agreement on outside nuclear inspections in North Korea.

“Washington itself admitted a lot of ambiguities exist,” South Korean Foreign Minister Yu Myung-hwan told the South Korean parliament last week. “Through consultations with other countries, we will ensure that sampling is an essential part of verification.”

Japanese Prime Minister Taro Aso has said that the situation will be “tangled” if the U.S.-North Korea verification deal was only a verbal understanding.

Tokyo’s top envoy to the six-party talks, Akitaka Saiki, said after meeting his Chinese counterpart that Beijing is not ready to call the group’s next meeting because of differences “over how to put the U.S.-North Korea deal on paper,” Japan’s Kyodo News agency reported.

Chief U.S. negotiator Christopher R. Hill returned from a visit to Pyongyang in early October with what the State Department said was an “agreement” to verify a nuclear declaration submitted by the communist state in June.

The department has not released the main document, but only an accompanying “fact sheet” with “U.S.-North Korea understandings on verification.”

The “understandings” outlined specific verification measures, such as “the use of scientific procedures, including sampling and forensic activities,” which would provide relatively reliable clues about the North’s nuclear activities.

North Korea, however, insisted last week that it had made no such promises and rejected the notion of allowing any samples to be removed at the site of its plutonium-making plant at Yongbyon.

“The method of verification will be … confined to field visits,” the official KCNA news agency quoted a Foreign Ministry spokesman as saying. Changing the written agreement is “an act of infringing upon sovereignty little short of seeking a house search.”

Daryl Kimball, executive director of the Arms Control Association, said: “The Japanese, South Koreans and even the Chinese are unhappy about the level of consultations, because now we have ambiguity, and they are frustrated that this situation has emerged.”

Officials and analysts said it is likely that the North Koreans are trying to buy time until President-elect Barack Obama takes office.

But Evans Revere, president of the Korea Society in New York, said North Koreans had been repeatedly warned against making such assumptions.

“If Pyongyang thinks that the next administration is going to give them an ‘easier ride,’ I think they are making a mistake,” Mr. Revere said. “During the North Korean delegation’s recent visit to New York, many people made precisely this point to them.”