Category: Iran

Iran: Reaction

Iran Reports Missile Test, Drawing Rebuke
(New York Times)…Alan Cowell and William J. Broad

Iran’s Revolutionary Guards test-fired nine missiles in war-game maneuvers on Wednesday, including at least one the government in Tehran described as having the range to reach Israel.

Defense Secretary Robert M. Gates told reporters the world is not closer to a military confrontation, even though Iran’s missile launch came just days after Israel conducted a high-profile military exercise in the Mediterranean. “What we’re seeing is a lot of signaling going on,” he said, adding that both Israel and Iran “understand [the] consequences” of military action.

Iran … likelihood of attack

A U.S. Attack On Iran? Not Coming Soon
(Christian Science Monitor)…Peter Grier, July 8, 2008
Pg. 1

A preemptive US attack on Iranian nuclear facilities may be unlikely anytime soon. But that does not mean it is off the table forever. And Israel – worried about the possibility of a hostile, nuclear-armed regional neighbor – may have its own timetable for possible military action.

The likelihood of Israel bombing Iranian nuclear enrichment facilities is not zero, but it is not as high as many experts seem to think, Mr. Pollack said at the CSIS seminar.

Iran: Quality of Information

US Pentagon Doubts Israeli Intelligence Over Iran’s Nuclear Programme, (London Sunday Telegraph)…Tim Shipman, July 6, 2008

Pentagon chiefs fear that Israeli plans for an attack on Iran’s nuclear programme will fail to destroy the facilities because neither the CIA nor Mossad knows where every base is located

A former head of Mossad, the agency whose main responsibility is overseas intelligence, told The Sunday Telegraph last week that Israel would have to act within a year to prevent Iran securing nuclear weapons.

Iran: Presidential Finding

Annals of National Security: Preparing the Battlefield, The Bush Administration steps up its secret moves against Iran, by Seymour M. Hersh, New Yorker, July 7, 2008

Late last year, Congress agreed to a request from President Bush to fund a major escalation of covert operations against Iran ..

These operations, for which the President sought up to four hundred million dollars, were described in a Presidential Finding

Under federal law, a Presidential Finding, which is highly classified, must be issued when a covert intelligence operation gets under way and, at a minimum, must be made known to Democratic and Republican leaders in the House and the Senate and to the ranking members of their respective intelligence committees—the so-called Gang of Eight. Money for the operation can then be reprogrammed from previous appropriations, as needed, by the relevant congressional committees, which also can be briefed.

The Pentagon consultant said, “Fallon went down because, in his own way, he was trying to prevent a war with Iran, and you have to admire him for that.”

Iran: Interests and Options

Spy Games In Iran, (Washington Post)…David Ignatius, July 2, 2008, Pg. 15

In the new cold war between America and Iran, the United States appears to be running some limited covert operations across the Iranian border.

… The Iranians, by contrast, seem adept at interweaving aggressive operations and diplomacy.

The U.S. covert-action program was revealed this week in the New Yorker by Seymour Hersh.  He wrote that late last year, Democratic and Republican leaders in Congress had agreed to a "finding" that authorized up to $400 million for secret operations against Iran, including support of ethnic minorities and opposi

The Iranians make little effort to hide their own covert-action campaigns — including extensive financial and military support for Hezbollah in Lebanon and Hamas in Gaza. The Iranians have used Syria effectively as a platform for these intelligence operations, from political action to paramilitary operations to clandestine terrorism.

Israel, which has had limited success in trying to combat these Iranian-backed groups militarily, has recently opted for diplomacy: It agreed last month to a truce with Hamas and a prisoner swap with Hezbollah. Israel is also conducting peace negotiations with Syria through Turkish intermediaries.

Saudi Arabia has taken a tougher stand to oppose what it sees as Iranian meddling in the region.

The proponents of a tougher U.S. strategy argue that Iran should be confronted everywhere it operates, much as the Reagan administration decided to challenge the Soviet Union, from Afghanistan to Nicaragua. This hard-line faction, usually identified with Vice President Cheney, would like to see a systematic effort to disrupt the Iranian economy, foment internal political opposition and, in general, raise the cost to Iran of its foreign activities. But so far, that argument for a rollback of Iranian power hasn’t prevailed inside a divided administration.

The Iran question will confront the next administration from Day One, and the basic options probably won’t look very different from the current set: Talk or fight, or do something in between?

Briefing: Chairman JCS

Highlights from the briefing by the Chairman, Joint Chiefs of Staff, Admiral Mullen: 

A Shortage Of Troops In Afghanistan
(Washington Post)…Josh White
The nation’s top military officer said yesterday that more U.S. troops are needed in Afghanistan to tamp down an increasingly violent insurgency, but that the Pentagon does not have sufficient forces to send because they are committed to the war in Iraq.

Risk To U.S. Troops Seen If Israel Hits Iran
(Los Angeles Times)…Peter Spiegel
The U.S. military’s top officer warned Wednesday that an Israeli airstrike against Iran would make the Middle East more unstable and could add to the stress on overworked American forces in the region.

Mullen Warns Of ‘Third Front’ For US
(Financial Times)…Daniel Dombey, Andrew Ward and Harvey Morris
…In comments to the press, Admiral Michael Mullen, the senior US military commander, also said he was “deeply troubled” by what he said was the increasing effectiveness of the Taliban in Afghanistan.

Broadcast News Coverage Of Admiral Mullen Briefing, (CNN)…Jamie McIntyre
…Well, John, a candid admission from America’s top military officer that the United States right now really isn’t up for another war. While Adm. Mike Mullen won’t say what message he delivered in recent meetings with Israel’s top generals, the warning to Israel seemed clear: Don’t drag the U.S. into war by launching a preemptive attack on Iran’s nuclear facilities.

Iran: strategy and sanctions

Iran Needs To Hear Firm No On Nukes
(Chicago Tribune)…Kay Bailey Hutchison, June 29, 2008

The Bush administration’s careful strategy of sanctions against Iran for its nuclear defiance has been on a glide slope of diminishing returns, and Iran has continued to plow ahead. By incrementally advancing its nuclear program while incrementally reducing its cooperation with the International Atomic Energy Agency, Iran is creeping methodically toward a nuclear weapons capability.

Sen. Kay Bailey Hutchison (R-Texas) is chairman of the Senate Republican Policy Committee.

Iran: Info Quality

    U.S. Is Said To Expand Covert Operations In Iran
    (Washington Post)…Joby Warrick
    The Bush administration told Congress last year of a secret plan to dramatically expand covert operations inside Iran as part of a long-running effort to destabilize the country’s ruling regime, according to a report published yesterday.
    320,000 Graves To Be Dug For Enemies
    (Washington Times)…Agence France-Presse
    Iran is to dig 320,000 graves in border districts to allow for the burial of enemy soldiers in the event of any attack on its territory, a top commander said on Sunday.
    Tehran Reportedly Reviewing Incentives
    (Baltimore Sun)…Unattributed
    Iran’s official IRNA news agency is reporting that officials are still reviewing an international package of economic incentives designed to get Tehran to curb its nuclear program.

Iran: Sanctions

Iran: European Sanctions Condemned(New York Times)…Reuters, June 25, 2008

Iran said new sanctions imposed by the European Union over its nuclear plans could hurt diplomatic efforts to resolve the dispute. On Monday, the European Union agreed on punitive measures aimed at businesses and individuals the West says are linked to Iran’s nuclear and ballistic missile programs. The sanctions include an asset freeze on Iran’s largest bank, Bank Melli, and visa bans on some officials. A Foreign Ministry spokesman, Mohammad Ali Hosseini, called the move “illegal” and made clear it would not slow Iran’s nuclear work.