Iran: Interests and Options

Spy Games In Iran, (Washington Post)…David Ignatius, July 2, 2008, Pg. 15

In the new cold war between America and Iran, the United States appears to be running some limited covert operations across the Iranian border.

… The Iranians, by contrast, seem adept at interweaving aggressive operations and diplomacy.

The U.S. covert-action program was revealed this week in the New Yorker by Seymour Hersh.  He wrote that late last year, Democratic and Republican leaders in Congress had agreed to a "finding" that authorized up to $400 million for secret operations against Iran, including support of ethnic minorities and opposi

The Iranians make little effort to hide their own covert-action campaigns — including extensive financial and military support for Hezbollah in Lebanon and Hamas in Gaza. The Iranians have used Syria effectively as a platform for these intelligence operations, from political action to paramilitary operations to clandestine terrorism.

Israel, which has had limited success in trying to combat these Iranian-backed groups militarily, has recently opted for diplomacy: It agreed last month to a truce with Hamas and a prisoner swap with Hezbollah. Israel is also conducting peace negotiations with Syria through Turkish intermediaries.

Saudi Arabia has taken a tougher stand to oppose what it sees as Iranian meddling in the region.

The proponents of a tougher U.S. strategy argue that Iran should be confronted everywhere it operates, much as the Reagan administration decided to challenge the Soviet Union, from Afghanistan to Nicaragua. This hard-line faction, usually identified with Vice President Cheney, would like to see a systematic effort to disrupt the Iranian economy, foment internal political opposition and, in general, raise the cost to Iran of its foreign activities. But so far, that argument for a rollback of Iranian power hasn’t prevailed inside a divided administration.

The Iran question will confront the next administration from Day One, and the basic options probably won’t look very different from the current set: Talk or fight, or do something in between?