Using Bombs To Stave Off War(New York Times)…Benny Morris

Israel will almost surely attack Iran’s nuclear sites in the next four to seven months — and the leaders in Washington and even Tehran should hope that the attack will be successful enough to cause at least a significant delay in the Iranian production schedule, if not complete destruction, of that country’s nuclear program. Because if the attack fails, the Middle East will almost certainly face a nuclear war — either through a subsequent pre-emptive Israeli nuclear strike or a nuclear exchange shortly after Iran gets the bomb.

U.S. Considers Opening A Diplomatic Post In Iran
(New York Times)…Elaine Sciolino and Sheryl Gay Stolberg
The Bush administration is considering establishing an American diplomatic presence in Iran for the first time since relations were severed during the 444-day occupation of the American Embassy in Tehran nearly three decades ago, European and American officials said on Thursday.

 Sanctions Fail To Cripple Iran’s Oil Industry
(Wall Street Journal)…Chip Cummins and Roshanak Taghavi
As Iran prepares to hold nuclear talks this weekend with Europe and the U.S., economic sanctions are crimping Tehran’s oil industry — but they haven’t broken it.

Iran-Linked Attacks Subside In Iraq, (USA Today)…Jim Michaels, July 18, 2008, Pg. 1

The number of deadly armor-piercing roadside bombs, which the U.S. government has linked to Iran, has dropped by nearly 70% in the past three months, the U.S. military says.

Iran And U.S. Signaling Chance Of Deal, (Washington Post)…Glenn Kessler, July 17, 2008; Page A16

President Bush’s decision to shift policy and send a senior U.S. envoy to nuclear talks with Iran this weekend was made after increasing signs that Iran was open to possible negotiations and that international sanctions were having an impact on the Islamic republic, U.S. officials said yesterday.

What ‘Bomb Iran’ Really Takes
(New York Post)…Ralph Peters, July 17, 2008

My greatest worry on Iran’s nuclear threat to civilization isn’t the military option. It’s trying that option on the cheap.

Military strikes must be the last resort. Even a successful attack would panic oil markets, interrupt supplies to an unknown degree and make enemies of the Iranian people for another generation.

Without compromising any secrets – the Iranians already know what we’d need to do  …

Screw up the effort, and today’s oil prices will double or triple, with severe downstream shortages showing up in a matter of weeks – every oil tanker’s insurance will be canceled immediately, even if the Straits of Hormuz remain open (unlikely).

And we’ll be in the global doghouse.

Ralph Peters’ new book is “Looking for Trouble: Adventures in a Broken World.”

POST: Unpopular trifecta, Thomas P.M. Barnett on July 16, 2008

POST: The Syria Card, By David J. Haimsky, SWJ Blog, July 6, 2008

Well-argued and worth reading.

To me, the Syria card has little to do with us (Rice seems to view the DPRK peace treaty as her hoped-for legacy–as pathetic as it will be to ask Beijing to craft it), but instead just represents Israel clearing the deck before anticipated strikes.

Very unpopular leader there also needing a boost, making for a trifecta with Bush and Ahmadinejad.

POST: If Iran wants to trigger US strikes for domestic purposes, this is the route, Thomas P.M. Barnett on July 15, 2008

ARTICLE: Iran’s chief of staff expands threat of Strait of Hormuz closure, DEBKAfile, July 10, 2008

I don’t put it past the hardliners to trigger their own splendid little war while their man still holds the presidency.

Much the same with Cheney, who sports the same, time-is-running-short look.

I still think there’s a strong probability that shots will be fired before 1/20/09. So many players on all three sides (US, Israel, Iran) want it to happen before Obama takes office.

It’s this sort of twisted logic that starts global conflicts.