Author: Tim J. Clark

Strategy: Pacific Command (PACOM)

U.S. Pacific Command Modifies Strategy (Honolulu Advertiser)…Richard Halloran

The U.S. Pacific Command, which controls American forces from the west coast of North America to the east coast of Africa, has fashioned a subtle revision in its strategy of reassuring friends and deterring potential enemies, notably China and North Korea.

*Officers of the Army, Navy, Marine Corps and Air Force in the Asia-Pacific region, some of whom apparently believe that conflict with China is likely, maybe inevitable. “The command wants to make sure that everyone understands that it is not inevitable,” said one officer.

“Deterring conflict on the Korean Peninsula continues to be a priority,” the strategy says. It points to a “maturing U.S.-China military-to-military relationship” while acknowledging that “tension remains across the Taiwan Strait.”

The revised strategy calls for a “whole of government approach,” asserting that security in the Asia-Pacific region “demands a high degree of coordination, integration, and unity of effort” within the Pentagon and across other departments and agencies.

Retired Generals …

One Man’s Military-Industrial-Media Complex, (New York Times)…David Barstow, Nov 30, 2008.

…Through seven years of war an exclusive club has quietly flourished at the intersection of network news and wartime commerce. Its members, mostly retired generals, have had a foot in both camps as influential network military analysts and defense industry rainmakers. It is a deeply opaque world, a place of privileged access to senior government officials, where war commentary can fit hand in glove with undisclosed commercial interests and network executives are sometimes oblivious to possible conflicts of interest. Few illustrate the submerged complexities of this world better than Barry McCaffrey.

Nuclear Capabilities, Challenges and Threats

Codes For Armageddon: A New President To Hold Nuclear Launch ‘Football’ (Baltimore Sun)…David Wood, Nov 30, 2008

…What awaits the new commander in chief is the weighty responsibility of defending the United States – and a nasty brew of nuclear weapons problems that range from the threat of terrorist attacks to potential new regional and superpower arms races. Iran and North Korea are rushing headlong toward building nuclear arsenals. And the main arms reduction treaty with Russia expires next year.

According to a report last month by the International Atomic Energy Agency, 439 nuclear power reactors currently are operating in 30 countries, with 36 plants under construction.

The increased nuclear activity “naturally increases the risk that nuclear material could be diverted to make nuclear weapons,” IAEA chief Mohamed ElBaradei told the United Nations. This year alone, the IAEA has investigated 250 incidents involving the loss or theft of nuclear or radioactive material. Much of it is never recovered, he said.

Senior U.S. intelligence officers, asked to weigh the risks that will dominate the next 15 years, noted that the spread of nuclear material and weapons technology is accelerating. They said a number of weak regimes, like North Korea, might acquire and then lose control of nuclear weapons. They listed new ways that might tempt actual use of nuclear weapons, for example in low-yield blasts or high-altitude detonations to cripple enemy communications.

Given these trends, they said in the recent report, the risk of nuclear war in the near future, “although remaining low, is likely to be greater than it is today.”

Iraq Security Agreement – Referendum by July 30, 2008

Top Shiite Cleric In Iraq Raises Concerns About Security Pact, (Washington Post)…Sudarsan Raghavan and Saad Sarhan, Nov 30, 2008.

Iraq’s preeminent Shiite spiritual leader, Grand Ayatollah Ali Sistani, has expressed concern about the country’s security agreement with the United States, saying it gives the Americans the upper hand and does not do enough to protect Iraqi sovereignty, an official at his office said Saturday.

The agreement, approved by Iraq’s parliament Thursday, calls for U.S. troops to withdraw from towns and cities by next summer and from Iraq by the end of 2011.

Sistani, whose words carry great weight in Iraq, did not reject the pact outright and indicated that he would leave it to voters to decide its fate in a national referendum to be held by July 30. His comments will almost certainly bring pressure on the Shiite-led government and Prime Minister Nouri al-Maliki to fulfill their promise to hold the vote.