Iran: Air Defense

U.S. Officials Say Iran Contracted For Russian SA-20 SAMs. (Aerospace Daily & Defense Report)…David A. Fulghum and Douglas Barrie, Dec 11, 2008

Senior U.S. government officials independently confirm that Iran is now “on contract” for the Russian SA-20 Gargoyle strategic SAM system, irrespective of Kremlin protestations to the contrary.

Tehran’s deployment of such a system would mark a step-up in capability and considerably improve the country’s ability to defend its controversial nuclear facilities, where the West remains concerned that Iran is pursuing a nuclear weapons capability.

nKorea: Not Talking …

North Korea Nuclear Talks Stall (New York Times)…Associated Press

Six-party talks on North Korea’s nuclear program stalled Wednesday after the North rejected a Chinese proposal outlining how monitors could verify its past atomic activities. North Korea was refusing to allow outside inspectors to take samples from its main nuclear complex at Yongbyon — a central method for checking whether the country was truthful in its accounting of its nuclear programs.

Cyber Attack: Pentagon Systems, Thumb Drives

Cyber Attack On DoD Linked To Russia, (FNC)…Jennifer Griffin, Dec 10, 2008.

Fox News has learned that the cyber attack on the U.S. military’s classified information network has been traced to a front company run by former Russian FSB or KGB spies. The attack led the Pentagon to ban the use of all thumb drives because that is how the worm got into the classified military network.

The intrusion was discovered, we’ve learned, by the U.S. military in Afghanistan. The attack came through the local internet service provider which the Afghans, under U.S. supervision, contracted out to this front company run by former Russian spies. The U.S. military relies on this internet service provider. Today, Michael Chertoff warned the Russians had already used cyber warfare in Georgia.

MICHAEL CHERTOFF [Homeland Security Secretary]: There was a preceding effort at denial of service or wave of denial of service attacks by, let us say, sympathizers to the Russian side of the dispute that was a prelude and an adjunct to the military attack where Russian troops entered Georgia.

GRIFFIN: Chertoff added the U.S. needs a doctrine to decide when a cyber attack is an act of war, a view echoed by the deputy defense secretary.

GORDON ENGLAND [Deputy Defense Secretary]: This larger future threat will necessarily require DOD to change its thinking and its planning, much like the first use of gun powder changed the nature of warfare centuries ago.

GRIFFIN: Russia has denied any involvement in this attack, and some here in the Pentagon are concerned that those former Russian spies may have been working for someone else. Brit?

HUME: All right, Jennifer, thank you.

Iraq: Flawed Intelligence, Prediction Markets

The use of Prediction Markets within the Intelligence Community may be helpful in improving the quality of intellgience. Regarding the WMDs, unlikely to have gotten a 100% of the analysts to bet that WMDs would be found.  This may have led to more in-depth understanding and awareness on the assumptions and probablilities associated with the respective assessments.

Intelligence Chief Blames War Policy, Los Angeles Times, December 10, 2008

WASHINGTON, D.C.–Gently admonishing President Bush, the nation’s newly retired chief intelligence analyst suggested that the Iraq war was as much the failure of policymakers as it was the flawed intelligence on which they relied.

Bush told ABC News last week that his biggest regret was “the intelligence failure in Iraq.”

“I wish the intelligence had been different, I guess,” he said.

Thomas Fingar, until this week the deputy director of national intelligence for analysis, declined to directly address the president’s swipe. But he said: “I learned something a long time ago in this town. There are only two possibilities: policy success and intelligence failure.”

Thomas Fingar, who stepped down Dec. 1 from the post of deputy director of national intelligence and as chairman of the National Intelligence Council,

AFRICOM: SETAF – Supporting Positive Change in Africa

Southern European Task Force – U.S. Army Africa — What is it?

‘A team like no other,’ the United States Southern European Task Force (SETAF) is the Army’s premier organization dedicated to achieving positive change in Africa. As the Army component to U.S. Africa Command, SETAF, in concert with national and international partners, conducts sustained security engagement with African land forces to promote peace, stability and security in Africa. As directed, SETAF will deploy as a contingency headquarters in support of crisis response.

What has the Army done?

Acknowledging the emerging strategic importance of Africa, U.S. Africa Command was formed Oct. 1, 2007. The U.S. Army has worked with the Defense Department to further develop, organize and unify the military capability for U.S. Africa Command. SETAF, stationed in Vicenza, Italy, since 1955, has a long history of operating on the continent and partnering with African nations. For the past 15 years, SETAF has provided crisis response, disaster relief and humanitarian assistance on the African continent.

What continued efforts does the Army have planned for the future?

SETAF is learning, growing and building capacity and capability to meet the requirements needed to coordinate U.S. Army activities in Africa. SETAF will build and strengthen relationships with African army organizations, along with national and international partners to promote a stable and secure Africa.

Specifically, SETAF will continue to refine its operational practices while focusing in four areas: Grow, Partner, Engage and Act. It will lay the foundation for future success while preparing to assume full responsibility for all U.S. Army operations in Africa. SETAF will also become a trusted and reliable partner for African militaries and security institutions, our allies, our U.S. Africa Command teammates, and other U.S. government agencies and international organizations working in Africa. SETAF will collaborate with African partner nations to transform security forces into contributors to peace with the capabilities and capacity required to accomplish the mission in support of lawful authorities.

Amid this transformation, SETAF will sustain and grow its enduring bilateral relationships with Italian military and civil institutions and among the Italian communities where we live.
Why is this important to the Army?

Since the 1990’s, SETAF has teamed with African nations as part of its operational focus. SETAF routinely conducted military-to-military training activities in Africa and performed humanitarian relief operations in Africa; Liberia, Rwanda, Uganda, Congo and former Zaire. The transformation to U.S. Army Africa allows SETAF to focus primarily on emerging African nations and build the capacity of our African partners, and better enable them to both improve security and prevent conflict.

nKorea: Talks and Hunger

North Korea: New Round Of Nuclear Talks Under Way, (New York Times)…Andrew Jacobs, A new round of talks aimed at persuading North Korea to discontinue its nuclear program began in Beijing on Monday.

Hunger Stalks 40% Of Population, (Washington Times)…Unattributed
United Nations agencies reported that nearly 40 percent of North Korea’s population will need food assistance in the coming year, largely because of critical shortages of fertilizer and fuel.

Anthropologists: Human Terrain Teams, National Power

Should Anthropologists Work Alongside Soldiers?, (USA Today)…Dan Vergano and Elizabeth Weise

The military for years has enlisted anthropologists, depending on their expertise to write up analyses of distant places and cultures.

At the just-concluded American Anthropological Association meeting here, the question of whether anthropologists should take part in military operations took the stage, though not for the first time. In 2007, the AAA’s executive board expressed “disapproval” of anthropologists’ work in Afghanistan and Iraq, arguing that they helped in “identifying and selecting specific populations as targets of U.S. military operations.”

“All anthropologists are working to make the world a better place,” said panelist Brian Selmeski, a professor of anthropology at the Air Force’s Air University at Maxwell Air Force Base in Alabama. He quoted an infantry officer who told him, “We don’t need your help to break things. We need your help so we don’t have to break things.”

Defense Secretary Robert Gates agrees.

“It is an unfortunate reality that many people believe there is this sharp divide between academia and the military — that each continues to look on the other with a jaundiced eye,” he said in May. “Challenges facing the world require a much broader conception and application of national power than just military prowess.”

Challenges: Domestic, International, X Prize?

“Headline news” …  themes indicate a challenging year both at home and abroad.  Current events have motivated me to start working on a proposal for an X Prize in order to accelerate application of the Quality Leadership technology.

    A ‘Tough Fight’ Seen For Afghan War In ’09, (USA Today)…Tom Vanden Brook
    The top commander of U.S. and NATO troops in Afghanistan said Sunday that 2009 will be a “tough fight” in Afghanistan and the United States will need nearly twice as many troops for up to four years to stabilize the country.

    Taliban Expanding Foothold In Afghanistan, Report Finds, (Wall Street Journal)…Yochi J. Dreazen
    The Taliban have expanded their footprint in Afghanistan and now have a permanent presence in nearly three-quarters of the country, according to a new report.
    Taliban’s Murderous Mullah Threatens West, (New York Post)…Reuters
    The Taliban’s chief urged Western forces yesterday to leave Afghanistan before thousands of troops are killed in the Islamist group’s renewed insurgency.
    New Troops Will Help In Afghan War, McCain Says, (Arizona Daily Star (Tucson))…Associated Press
    Sen. John McCain said Sunday that the situation in Afghanistan will get more difficult before it gets easier — “just like the surge in Iraq was.”