Defense/IG Report: Financial Mismanagement- Common or special?

You make the call … does the headline reflect a new event or a problem that’s been around awhile?

IG’s Report Highlights ‘Material Weaknesses,’ Financial Mismanagement At The Pentagon, (Washington Post)…Walter Pincus. Dec 15, 2008. Most critiques of the Defense Department’s spending focus on macroeconomic issues that are so large, readers can only groan and move on. Last week provided yet another example: The Pentagon’s deputy inspector general for auditing released a 140-page independent auditor’s report on the department’s financial statements for fiscal 2007 and 2008.

Iraq: U.S. Public Support for Withdrawal

Poll Finds Support For Obama’s War Views. (Washington Post)…Michael A. Fletcher and Jon Cohen

Americans are more upbeat about U.S. prospects in Iraq than at any time in the past five years, but nearly two-thirds continue to believe the war is not worth fighting and 70 percent say President-elect Barack Obama should fulfill his campaign promise to withdraw U.S. forces from the country within 16 months, according to a new Washington Post-ABC News poll.

Bush Doctrine: Preventing Further Terrorism

Bush Says His Post-9/11 Actions Prevented Further Terrorism, (Washington Post), Dan Eggen, Dec 18, 2008.

President Bush took credit yesterday for “keeping America safe” from terrorists since Sept. 11, 2001, arguing that his administration had prevented more bloodshed at home through aggressive policies and that such a result should outweigh any second-guessing of his methods. Bush told a friendly audience at the Army War College that he took “a deliberate and comprehensive approach” to preventing terrorism that combined military action overseas with strong defensive measures at home.

Israel: Iran Threat

Israel Warns U.S. Of Iranian Nuke Attack, (USA Today)…Unattributed, December 18, 2008, Pg. 7

Israeli Defense Minister Ehud Barak warned that if Iran acquires a nuclear weapon, it could try to attack the United States.

Barak, who spoke Wednesday at a conference of the Institute for National Security Studies at Tel Aviv University, said the world should press Iran to stop it from building nuclear weapons.

“If it built even a primitive nuclear weapon like the type that destroyed Hiroshima, Iran would not hesitate to load it on a ship, arm it with a detonator operated by GPS and sail it into a vital port on the east coast of North America,” he said.

Indicating the possibility of a military strike, Barak said, “We recommend to the world not to take any option off the table, and we mean what we say.”

Army Doctrine (system change)

Army Releases Newest Manual, (Washington Times)…John Milburn, Associated Press

The Army has released its first new training field manual in six years, highlighting the need for units to be ready to conduct stability operations after traditional combat has ended.

The manual, titled “Training for Full Spectrum Operations” and written at Fort Leavenworth, explains what soldiers can expect in combat.

It replaces a 2002 edition and comes on the heels of the Army’s release earlier this year of its latest operations doctrine, which emphasized that soldiers must be prepared and proficient in offense, defense and stability skills. The Army says it is the first time it has synchronized the manuals for operations and training.

Afghanistan: "Start winning the war. "

The Commander,  NBC Nightly News, 7:00 PM, Jim Maceda, Dec 17, 2008.

BRIAN WILLIAMS: On our last trip to Afghanistan, we heard it often from the soldiers on the ground. They didn’t like what it was called, the “Other War,” or even worse the “Forgotten War.” They’re in a tough fight there. President Obama will inherit it. He has vowed to pump more soldiers in. He’ll have help in improving the situation there from the point man on the ground in that war, Gen. John Nicholson, a man with one of the toughest jobs in the U.S. military.

Our own Jim Maceda spent some time with Nicholson in Kandahar Province.

JIM MACEDA: He rolls through town like a new sheriff getting used to the neighborhood, but this is the very heart of Taliban country.

REPORTER: So have you had suicide bomber attacks recently in Kandahar City?

MACEDA: Gen. John Nicholson is the first and only U.S. general in Southern Afghanistan and his orders are as clear as they are daunting: start winning the war.

BRIG. GEN. JOHN NICHOLSON [U.S. Army]: We are now going to be able to secure the vast majority of the population in the south and deliver the basic services through the government that they were unable to do this point.

MACEDA: He’s already expanding bases with a 15,000-20,000 additional U.S. troops expected in the coming year, effectively doubling NATO’s punch in the crucial south.

NICHOLSON: We will see more U.S. forces and more U.S. investment in Southern Afghanistan, which will be a game changer.

This will be the first of many visits here –

MACEDA: As much nation-builder as warrior, Nicholson’s day is a whirlwind of meetings with USAID officials, visiting lawmakers, and Afghan leaders. The boss still surprises his longtime military assistant.

MAJ. FRED TANNER [U.S. Army]: His ability – whoever he’s engaging with to be able to think at their level, you know, whether that be a congressman or be a company commander.

MACEDA: But the 51-year-old West Point grad with two Masters Degrees knows how tough victory will be. In 2006, we embedded with then Col. Nicholson and his brigade in Eastern Afghanistan coming under ambush, trying to flush out the Taliban from the Pakistan border. The Taliban was relentless. By the end of that tour, his unit had lost 45 men and 350 wounded – the highest U.S. toll in the war.

NICHOLSON: For me, there’s a moral obligation to my soldiers who’ve sacrificed so much here to come back and deliver on what they started.

MACEDA: And there’s something else.

NICHOLSON: I believe I was spared on 9/11 to do my duty here in Afghanistan.

MACEDA: The plane that struck the Pentagon on 9/11 destroyed his office, killing his closest colleagues. Nicholson should have been there, but instead was moving into a house that day with his family.

NICHOLSON: I’m grateful to have that purpose.

MACEDA: But with Taliban attacks and government corruption on the rise, Nicholson says he’s no Mr. Fixit.

NICHOLSON: You know, Mr. Fixit would imply that I had all the answers, but I certainly don’t.

MACEDA: What he does have is a mission to turn around a war he can’t walk away from.

Jim Maceda, NBC News, Kandahar.

Iraq Rebuilding: Cost of Poor Quality

Official History Spotlights Iraq Rebuilding Blunders, (New York Times)…James Glanz and T. Christian Miller, Dec 13, 2008.

Poor planning, waste and deception led to $200 billion failure, report says

An unpublished 513-page federal history of the American-led reconstruction of Iraq depicts an effort crippled before the invasion by Pentagon planners who were hostile to the idea of rebuilding a foreign country, and then molded into a $100 billion failure by bureaucratic turf wars, spiraling violence and ignorance of the basic elements of Iraqi society and infrastructure.

Among the overarching conclusions of the history is that five years after embarking on its largest foreign reconstruction project since the Marshall Plan in Europe after World War II, the United States government has in place neither the policies and technical capacity nor the organizational structure that would be needed to undertake such a program on anything approaching this scale.

James Glanz reported from Baghdad, and T. Christian Miller, of the nonprofit investigative Web site ProPublica, reported from Washington.

South Korea: Nomalization of Tours

USFK Begins Process Of Normalizing Tours, (Pacific Stars and Stripes)…Ashley Rowland

U.S. Forces Korea eventually will allow half of the 28,500 troops stationed in South Korea to serve here with their families, a dramatic change in an area once considered too remote, and too dangerous for families because of the threat from an unstable North Korea.

As a first step toward what the military calls “tour normalization,” USFK roughly will double the number of command-sponsored slots in the next year — to 4,350 in Seoul, Osan, Pyeongtaek, Daegu and Chinhae.

As many as 2,100 troops in Area I, just south of the heavily-guarded border between North Korea and South Korea, also will get two-year command sponsorships, U.S. Forces Korea commander Gen. Walter Sharp said Wednesday.

“I think it adds deterrence value for North Korea,” Sharp said. “It says: ‘OK, we’re comfortable enough in our capabilities, we’re comfortable that we’re bringing families over here, and you better not miscalculate.”

About the same number of troops in Area I, officially called U.S. Army Garrison-Red Cloud, have already brought their families to South Korea, but haven’t received family housing or cost-of-living allowances because they aren’t command sponsored.

Dr. David Chu, undersecretary of defense for personnel and readiness, signed a memorandum on Dec. 1 that approves USFK’s request for the shift, and authorizes changes to the Joint Federal Travel Regulation, which sets tour lengths for U.S. military installations around the world.

Most of those 28,500 U.S. troops in South Korea serve on one-year unaccompanied tours.

Under the new policy, troops serving in accompanied billets will stay for three years in all areas except Area 1. Accompanied tours to Area I will be set at two years.

Unaccompanied tours for most troops will remain at one year, but some “key personnel” will serve 2-year unaccompanied tours, USFK said.

Services may begin extending tour lengths now but are required to submit plans for implementation to Chu by March 1 USFK spokeswoman Col. Jane Crichton said Wednesday.

The move comes after two USFK commanders — Sharp and his predecessor, retired Gen. B.B. Bell — pushed Congress, the Department of Defense and South Korea to approve extended tour lengths. Longer accompanied tours are standard in Japan, Europe and at many U.S. bases in the rest of the world.

Sharp said there was little resistance, but cited many questions among Defense Department officials — “a lot of: ‘How are you going to do that? Do you really have the infrastructure to do that?’ ”

Bell, who retired in June, began lobbying for normalized tours about three years ago, saying the yearlong unaccompanied tours were outdated and that South Korea was modern and safe enough for families. Accompanied tours also would reduce stress on servicemembers who had to leave their families behind, he said.

Sharp said having longer tours “greatly increases” USFK’s military capabilities, and will let him have a more cohesive staff in place as he approaches the critical 2012 transfer of military operational control on the peninsula to South Korea’s military leaders.

“I don’t have to train new people every year,” Sharp said.

Sharp said he didn’t know how long it would take to reach full normalization, but Bell predicted in May that it could take 10 to 15 years.

Crichton said the changes to tour lengths in South Korea will affect worldwide troop rotations, and could take awhile to implement. Services with a small presence in South Korea, like the Marines, may be able to increase tour lengths and command sponsorships faster than those with larger numbers, like the Army, she said.

Sharp said the new policy will affect mostly incoming servicemembers, but those already stationed here can apply for the extended accompanied tours.

He said the pace of normalization depends on how quickly the United States and South Korea pay for the facilities — particularly schools — needed to house and support families. The two countries are in discussions to determine how much each will pay toward the cost of stationing U.S. troops here.

South Korea now pays about 41 percent under a two-year agreement between the two countries. Before negotiations began this year, U.S. officials called for South Korea to increase its support to 50 percent and to have a longer agreement.

Sharp said the longer tours also mean that more middle-grade officers and noncommissioned officers — ranks in high demand in Iraq and Afghanistan — could be stationed in South Korea.

Under the old system, an NCO or middle-grade officer who deploys to the Middle East probably would not be stationed in South Korea immediately before or after deployment, because troops can’t be forced to serve back-to-back unaccompanied tours.

“Effectively, he’s not deployable to Iraq or Afghanistan for a three-year period,” Sharp said.

With the new system, the number of troops available for deployment to Iraq or Afghanistan won’t be affected by increasing tour lengths here, he said. After full normalization, South Korea-based units might be deployable to combat zones, the general said. During a news conference Thursday, he said deployed troops’ families may remain in South Korea.

Sharp said he expects the Defense Department to put more importance — and possibly more money — into the U.S. military presence in South Korea after the 2009 Quadrennial Defense Review, held every four years to assess U.S. military strategic direction.

U.S. bases in South Korea are a key point of its presence in the strategic Northeast Asia region.

“Korea’s a very important part of the world for us,” he said. “It will be after 2012.”

Iraq: Flawed Intelligence, Prediction Markets

The use of Prediction Markets within the Intelligence Community may be helpful in improving the quality of intellgience. Regarding the WMDs, unlikely to have gotten a 100% of the analysts to bet that WMDs would be found.  This may have led to more in-depth understanding and awareness on the assumptions and probablilities associated with the respective assessments.

Intelligence Chief Blames War Policy, Los Angeles Times, December 10, 2008

WASHINGTON, D.C.–Gently admonishing President Bush, the nation’s newly retired chief intelligence analyst suggested that the Iraq war was as much the failure of policymakers as it was the flawed intelligence on which they relied.

Bush told ABC News last week that his biggest regret was “the intelligence failure in Iraq.”

“I wish the intelligence had been different, I guess,” he said.

Thomas Fingar, until this week the deputy director of national intelligence for analysis, declined to directly address the president’s swipe. But he said: “I learned something a long time ago in this town. There are only two possibilities: policy success and intelligence failure.”

Thomas Fingar, who stepped down Dec. 1 from the post of deputy director of national intelligence and as chairman of the National Intelligence Council,

Unmanned Aircraft: Reaper – "Thinking" Ahead

Not uncommon for the military to develop technologies that will eventually be applied within the private/commercial sector.

Delivering Devastation, (Washington Times)…Sara A. Carter

Unmanned aircraft controlled from U.S. fly over Afghanistan, Iraq on ‘kill’ missions.

Air Force officials say that the Predator and Reaper are just the first in a revolution in cyber and warfare technology that will take pilots out of the skies and put them behind computers and joysticks.

We believe we’ll have a computer with as much computing power as a human no later than 2012,” Gen. Peterson said in reference to meetings he had with IBM and other computer technology firms. “We want the aircraft to initially think through the problem and offer the pilot a couple of solutions to choose from.”

Although the technology is still being developed, he said he hopes that one day advanced aircraft will be able to “plan ahead” and evaluate changes in the mission if required.