Category: Intl Security

Columbia: Negotiations

Tough Intellectual Takes Rebel Reins In Colombia, (Washington Post)…Juan Forero and Steven Dudley

The death of the world’s oldest rebel commander has ushered in a new chapter in Colombia’s long civil conflict, with a bookish communist intellectual now leading a waning guerrilla force against a government convinced of its ability to deliver a resounding defeat.

In a rare one-on-one interview with The Washington Post in 2000, one of his last, Cano said he was open to negotiations, but he did not hesitate to state the FARC’s main objective — to rule Colombia. “For the long term, we have it defined: We want to be in power,” he said.

Southeast Asia: Successes and Homework

Asian Gains Seen In Terror Fight, (New York Times)…Eric Schmitt, June 9, 2008, Pg. 1

The deadliest terrorist networks in Southeast Asia have suffered significant setbacks in the past three years, weakened by aggressive policing, improved intelligence, enhanced military operations and an erosion of public support, government officials and counterterrorism specialists say.

The United States and Australia, in particular, have played major roles in helping Southeast Asian countries combat terrorist threats in the region.

Good illustration on an international approach at the regional level in combating terrorism.  On the U.S. side, involves Special Operations, FBI, CIA, AID to name a few.

I added the word “Homework” in the title to remind myself that this would be a good example  for illustrating application of all the key points related to “Quality Leadership.”

Technology, Perfection, Prevention

Where ‘The Land Is On Fire’ (Newsweek)…Sami Yousafzai and Ron Morea

Article states that more than a 100 people have been killed by U.S. Predator strikes since 2006 that may include non-combatants.

…In the United States, few would question that brutal calculus—one thing that both presidential candidates and the vast majority of citizens would agree upon is the legitimacy of going after the Qaeda network in Pakistan’s tribal badlands. But Pakistan’s new civilian leadership complains that the U.S. strikes—and the collateral damage they’ve caused—are making the job of pacifying the area harder. At ground level, in mountain hamlets like Damadola, things aren’t always as clear as they may seem through the viewfinder of a deadly, high-flying drone.

Technology such as the Predator is not perfect,  but improvements will continue to be made to help ensure that the right target is hit at the right time by the right weapon.  Preventing the need for the application of military power is a more challenging problem.

Iran, Nukes, Negotiations

Sitting Down At The Nuclear Table With Iran, (Boston Globe)…Graham Allison

…But it is clear that Gates remains convinced that direct negotiations are imperative for solving the nuclear standoff. As he told the Academy of American Diplomacy last month, “We need to figure out a way to develop some leverage . . . and then sit down and talk with them.” Negotiations are never certain to yield results. The alternative, a world of nuclear anarchy, is of great concern to both nations.

Iraq: Positive Trends, Next Steps

Iraq And The Election. (Wall Street Journal)…Editorial, June 6, 2008, Pg. 14

…We are winning in Iraq. Indeed, we can now say with certainty that we will win, as long as we don’t repeat our earlier mistakes and seek to draw down too soon.

For three consecutive weeks, the number of violent incidents have been at their lowest level since the spring of 2004. The number of U.S. combat fatalities last month, 19, was the lowest of the entire war, and Iraqi military and civilian deaths are also sharply down. In the first five months of this year, 4,500 insurgent weapons caches were found, compared to 6,900 for all of 2007. These numbers have sometimes moved in the wrong direction and may do so again, particularly during major combat operations. But the trend is unmistakably positive.

All of this means that it is now possible to foresee not merely a stable Iraq, but also one that can achieve our original strategic goals in the region. The strategist Frederick Kagan – an architect of the surge – makes the analogy to West Germany during the Cold War. A secure and pro-American Iraq would be crucial to expanding U.S. influence in the Arab heart of the Middle East, and especially to containing Iran. A democratic Iraq can serve as an alternative pole of Shiite power in the region, as well as an alternative political model to theocratic, radical Tehran.

We are winning in Iraq. Indeed, we can now say with certainty that we will win, as long as we don’t repeat our earlier mistakes and seek to draw down too soon. This is the improving Iraq that the next U.S. President will inherit, and it is the heart of the Iraq debate Americans should have in November.

Some irony with the earlier posting on ground breaking for the U.S. Institure of Peace to help prevent “external” conflicts. What would be truly ground breaking would be recognition on the need to resolve “internal” conflicts …. 

Opposition: NATO Expansion

Russian Leader Warns Against NATO Expansion. (Boston Globe)…Associated Press, June 6, 2008

Russia’s president showed muscle yesterday in his first major foreign policy speech since taking office a month ago, warning that a further NATO expansion eastward would ruin Russia’s relations with the West.

Speaking to a group of German policy makers and business leaders, Dmitry Medvedev’s warning continued the course of his predecessor Vladimir Putin – who fiercely opposed the alliance’s plans to incorporate Russia’s former Soviet neighbors, Ukraine and Georgia. Yet Medvedev also sounded more conciliatory, making offers to step back from confrontation and work out a new European security pact.

U.S. Institute of Peace: Preventing War

At Peace Institute Groundbreaking, War Dominates The Proceedings, (Washington Post)…Michael Abramowitz, June 6, 2008, Pg. 7

President Bush, whose administration has been dominated by wars in Iraq and Afghanistan and the global battle against terrorism, helped break ground yesterday on a $185 million facility for the U.S. Institute of Peace — a government-funded think tank with the mission of preventing conflict and helping promote postwar stability operations.

Preventing conflict requires the optimal application of  “Smart” power by “Quality Leaders”  who lead their respective stakeholders to reduce variation.  The variation paradigm was developed in 1924 and may take another 28 years before it is commonly applied.

“In the final analysis, any contemplation of war must return to  the nature of humanity, which yet stands as the root cause of war and the wellspring of History’s inestimable tragedy.  Throughout time, governments, like wars, have both flowed from and reflected human nature in both positive and negative manifestation. If we are to overcome the massive violence that has typified modern civilization for five centuries, our ultimate challenge is nothing more or less than transforming the image we see in the mirror. That, however, is a task that lends itself to no purely political solution.”  — Bruce Porter, War and the Rise of The State.