Category: Israel

Iran: Quality of Information

US Pentagon Doubts Israeli Intelligence Over Iran’s Nuclear Programme, (London Sunday Telegraph)…Tim Shipman, July 6, 2008

Pentagon chiefs fear that Israeli plans for an attack on Iran’s nuclear programme will fail to destroy the facilities because neither the CIA nor Mossad knows where every base is located

A former head of Mossad, the agency whose main responsibility is overseas intelligence, told The Sunday Telegraph last week that Israel would have to act within a year to prevent Iran securing nuclear weapons.

Israel: Gaza Solution

Gaza: Mogadishu or Dubai? By Pepe Escobar, THE ROVING EYE, Asia Times, Jun 14, 2008

Sneh has a neat formula to sell his package: "Gaza now is like Mogadishu [capital of Sudan]. It can be Dubai [in the United Arab Emirates]. What you need is to uproot the terrorists and to enable democratic forces to act."

Take According to Sneh, "The problem of Gaza is that there are 1 million people there living in poverty and now without jobs and without hope. And if you want to uproot Hamas – something that Israel must do one day – the way to do it is not just by military option, which would break the military force of Hamas, but to enable the legitimate government of [Prime Minister Salam] Fayyad to restore its authority, and immediately after that to embark in an economic development plan to build, through private enterprise, 100,000 jobs in Gaza."

Ephraim Sneh … is a former deputy defense minister (1999-2001), a retired general and a highly influential Labor member of the Knesset.

Briefing: Chairman JCS

Highlights from the briefing by the Chairman, Joint Chiefs of Staff, Admiral Mullen: 

A Shortage Of Troops In Afghanistan
(Washington Post)…Josh White
The nation’s top military officer said yesterday that more U.S. troops are needed in Afghanistan to tamp down an increasingly violent insurgency, but that the Pentagon does not have sufficient forces to send because they are committed to the war in Iraq.

Risk To U.S. Troops Seen If Israel Hits Iran
(Los Angeles Times)…Peter Spiegel
The U.S. military’s top officer warned Wednesday that an Israeli airstrike against Iran would make the Middle East more unstable and could add to the stress on overworked American forces in the region.

Mullen Warns Of ‘Third Front’ For US
(Financial Times)…Daniel Dombey, Andrew Ward and Harvey Morris
…In comments to the press, Admiral Michael Mullen, the senior US military commander, also said he was “deeply troubled” by what he said was the increasing effectiveness of the Taliban in Afghanistan.

Broadcast News Coverage Of Admiral Mullen Briefing, (CNN)…Jamie McIntyre
…Well, John, a candid admission from America’s top military officer that the United States right now really isn’t up for another war. While Adm. Mike Mullen won’t say what message he delivered in recent meetings with Israel’s top generals, the warning to Israel seemed clear: Don’t drag the U.S. into war by launching a preemptive attack on Iran’s nuclear facilities.

Israel: Capability

Israel’s Jets Not Enough, (New York Post)…Dan Williams, Reuters, Jan 22, 1980, pg. 10

Israel has spent years training for a possible bombing run against Iranian nuclear sites, but its air force may be too small to finish the job alone, officials and independent experts said yesterday.

Officials, who declined to be identified given the censorship around Israel’s strategic capabilities, said the air force would be unlikely to deliver more than a one-time blow to the Iranian nuclear program, which international experts believe may require as many as 1,000 strikes to be destroyed.

“A hundred warplanes are enough for a raid, but they do not make for an air campaign – and that is what is needed to deal conclusively with Iran’s capabilities,” an official said. “Israel wants to go it alone against Iran as a last resort only.”

Israel, Iran, U.S. Elections

Israel ‘Will Attack Iran’ Before New US President Sworn In, John Bolton Predicts, (London Daily Telegraph)…Toby Harnden, June 24, 2008

John Bolton, the former American ambassador to the United Nations, has predicted that Israel could attack Iran after the November presidential election but before George W Bush’s successor is sworn in.

“An Obama victory would rule out military action by the Israelis because they would fear the consequences given the approach Obama has taken to foreign policy,” said Mr Bolton, who was Mr Bush’s ambassador to the UN from 2005 to 2006.

“With McCain they might still be looking at a delay. Given that time is on Iran’s side, I think the argument for military action is sooner rather than later absent some other development.”

William Kristol, a prominent neo-conservative, told Fox News on Sunday that an Obama victory could prompt Mr Bush to launch attacks against Iran. “If the president thought John McCain was going to be the next president, he would think it more appropriate to let the next president make that decision than do it on his way out,” he said.

Iran: Action, Reaction …

    U.S. Says Exercise By Israel Seemed Directed At Iran. (New York Times)…Michael R. Gordon and Eric Schmitt, Israel carried out a major military exercise earlier this month that American officials say appeared to be a rehearsal for a potential bombing attack on Iran’s nuclear facilities.
    How Iran Would Retaliate If It Comes To War
    (Christian Science Monitor)…Scott Peterson
    Military analysts say the Islamic Republic would strike back in unconventional ways – targeting American interests in Iraq and Afghanistan.
    Iran’s President, Foreign Minister Send Conflicting Signals, (USA Today)…Unattributed
    Iranian President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad said the West failed to prevent Iran from developing a nuclear program, even as the country’s foreign minister said Tehran was considering a United Nations Security Council offer of incentives on the issue.

Iran, Nukes, Negotiations

Sitting Down At The Nuclear Table With Iran, (Boston Globe)…Graham Allison

…But it is clear that Gates remains convinced that direct negotiations are imperative for solving the nuclear standoff. As he told the Academy of American Diplomacy last month, “We need to figure out a way to develop some leverage . . . and then sit down and talk with them.” Negotiations are never certain to yield results. The alternative, a world of nuclear anarchy, is of great concern to both nations.

Iran does not win a Nuke War

ARTICLE: Israel Wins ‘Nuke War’ , Could destroy Iran: study, New York Post. December 25, 2007, By Andy Soltis

A doomsday war between nuclear-armed adversaries Iran and Israel would kill up to 28 million Iranians and destroy their nation, but the Jewish state might survive, according to a prestigious US think tank.

That would limit Israel’s deaths to as “few” as 200,000 – while its much more numerous and more powerful nukes would obliterate Iran, said the Center for Strategic and International Studies.

Current media coverage on the topics of a potential conflict with Iran reminded me of the story on the results of a nuclear exchange between Israel and Iran.