Iran: Internal Economic Challenges

No Rush On Iran, (Los Angeles Times)…Hossein Askari, Dec 13, 2008

A bevy of foreign policy experts are pressing Barack Obama to move quickly on his promise to “engage in aggressive personal diplomacy” with Iran. He’d be better off first taking a long, deep breath and allowing Iran’s economic crisis to take its toll on the mullahs before getting down to serious business.

The political landscape has shifted dramatically in Iran in the last few months, handing the United States policy options it hasn’t had since the 1979 revolution. President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad’s populist expenditure policies, coupled with the unprecedented collapse of the oil market, have driven Iran into an economic tailspin. The result is that Iran is more vulnerable to focused economic sanctions than it has been in 30 years.

Iran’s record of economic failure since the revolution is astonishing. Average real per-capita income is lower and income distribution is more unequal. Oil production has dropped 30% and yet dependence on oil revenues is higher. The unemployment rate is hovering around 25%, and this year inflation may top 30%.

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