Macroeconomics – 001: Trends and projections 1920-2010

New President has set high expectations. What will be the answer to the proverbial question that will be asked in the 2012 election: “Are you any better of now than you were four (4) years ago?”   Would there be any concensus on the qualitative and quantitiatve indicators?  If so, which ones? 

The following graphic provides macro level trends and projections from 1920 thru 2010. May help answer the question: Are we any better off than Americans were in 1920?  1930? 1940? ….  1990? 2000? … 2010?
It’s the Economy Stupid!, Oct 16-22, 2008. Good.

Following economic indicators provided by the U.S. Treasury – includes percent change in Gross Domestic Product (GDP), unemployment rate, personal savings, productivity,  prices, and inflation to name a few.

Monitoring the Economy — Monthly Indicators thru Sep 08.

Monitoring the Economy — Quarterly Data as of 10/30/2008.

Reservists: Civilian Careers at Risk

Reservists Face Rocky Return In Job Market (CBS)…Lesley Stahl, Nov 2, 2008.

“60 Minutes” report on National Guard and Reserve troops returning home from active duty to “find themselves demoted or penalized or out of a job completely.” Includes interview with Asst. Secretary of Defense for Reserve Affairs Thomas Hall.

With over 50 of his workers deployed right now, Miller says the company is spending about $4,000 a piece to train their replacements, and as much as $100,000 if a worker has to be relocated from another state. … The private employers cannot supplement, cannot support the full cost of defending this nation on our balance books.

I had one senior VP of HR tell me that if `I had three candidates for a senior position in the company, and one of them mentioned they’re in the Guard and Reserve,’ he would only have two candidates left. And I said, `You know that’s illegal.’ His response was, `I can always find a reason why not to hire somebody.’

Would Iran strike preemptively? — Play the Game – Predict the Outcome

POST: Would Iran strike preemptively? Thomas P.M. Barnett on November 4, 2008 

ARTICLE: Top Iran officials recommend preemptive strike against Israel, By Barak Ravid, Haaretz, October 22, 2008

If true, then this is how the MAD-ness begins: the claim to equal danger for both sides.

Read your history. The shoe-banging has begun for real.

 Play the News: Games and Prediction Markets allows you the opportunity to predict what you think will happen.

Play the News: Games and Prediction Markets

Interactive games and prediction markets have the potential to get people more involved in events with the potential for positively influencing decision makers.

What is “Play the News”?

An engaging, community driven experience – imagine fantasy sports meets the evening news. Play the News is a web-based platform that brings interactive gaming elements to the online ‘news media’ industry changing the paradigm of news consumption from passive reading to active engagement. The experience is made up of the “game” component, or news games, and the community of participation around them such as commenting, rankings, and many features to come. The profile allows you to build a snapshot of your socio-political profile over time on a range of issues.

StrategyPage’s Prediction Market —  Correct 89.51% of the Time (as of 4 Nov 08. The StrategyPage.com Prediction Market is a game where you get to predict when events will happen and score points for predicting correctly.

Iran – Diplomacy or Strike? Play the game

Play the news / Will Israel strike Iran’s nuclear sites?, By Haaretz.com Staff.

In June, former U.S. Ambassador to the United Nations John Bolton predicted that Israel would strike at Iran’s nuclear facilities before the end of George W. Bush’s term in 2009.

Iran’s uranium enrichment – considered a sure sign of progress toward nuclear weapons – continues despite pressure from the West to stop.

Israel considers a nuclear Iran an existential threat. Others fear Iran could transfer weapons to militant groups, yet Tehran maintains its nuclear industry is ebing built for peaceful purposes.

Will Iran and Israel go to war or can a compromise be found?

Haaretz.com has teamed up with playthenewsgame.com to bring our readers a new and exciting interactive experience – a game that lets you put your news savvy to the test.

The idea is simple: Take one hot topic and try to predict the outcome. Use the game’s guides and advisers for advice on what to do – and what not to do!

To get started, simply click on the box below and follow the instructions.

Playthenewsgame.com

Iraq: Surge Strategy

Lessons Of The Surge, (Washington Times)…Michael O’Hanlon, Nov 4, 2008.

Many Americans and Iraqis think of the recent surge in Iraq as simply the temporary addition of more U.S. troops to the war effort in 2007 and the first half of 2008. This is incorrect. It is also dangerous.

At the risk of falling victim to Pentagonese, I would propose we broaden our understanding of the surge by thinking of that word as an acronym.

“S” in surge should be understood as an emphasis on security.

“U” stands for unity of effort.

“R” must stand for reconciliation.

“G” stands for government capacity in Iraq

“E” stands for excellence in execution.

Afghanistan: 3 Key Lessons from Iraq

Lessons Of Iraq, (International Herald Tribune)…Christopher M. Schnaubelt, Nov 1, 2008.

There are three key lessons from in Iraq that NATO should consider for Afghanistan, even if there is no substantial increase in troops.

First, there must be a broad and candid analysis of the situation.

Second, probably the most important change in Iraq was shifting the military focus to protecting the population – a task that should be the cornerstone of any counterinsurgency operation.

Finally, the change in strategy in Iraq included a “civilian surge” that doubled the number of Provincial Reconstruction Teams in Iraq. The increased capability helped to promote national reconciliation efforts and to improve the legitimacy of Iraq’s government by facilitating connections between the central government and provincial and local leaders.

Christopher M. Schnaubelt holds the Transformation Chair at the NATO Defense College in Rome.

nKorea: Proliferation Concerns

    North Korean Plane Was Grounded At U.S. Request, (Wall Street Journal)…Jay Solomon, Krishna Pokharel and Peter Wonacott, Nov 1, 2008.  India blocked a North Korean plane from delivering cargo to Iran in August, responding to a U.S. request based on fears about the spread of weapons of mass destruction.

    In Asia, Doubts Grow About A Nuclear-Free North Korea, (Miami Herald)…Tim Johnson, McClatchy News Service, Nov 1, 2008. As negotiations over North Korea’s nuclear program stumble along, some scholars and policymakers around Asia now believe that the talks may never lead Pyongyang to cede all of its nuclear weapons.