nKorea: Nuclear Pact, Compliance

U.S. Takes N. Korea’s Word On Nuclear Pact, (Washington Times)…Nicholas Kralev, Nov 24, 2008.

Current and former U.S. officials say the Bush administration has put unprecedented trust in North Korea’s regime – a charter member of its “axis of evil” – and accepted verbal agreements that Pyongyang has disputed, with potentially unsettling implications for arms control. 

Most recently, the administration has taken as sufficient an oral commitment by North Korea to allow sampling and other scientific activities to verify its nuclear history – a pledge the North says it never made.

The Flight That Wasn’t, (Newsweek)…Mark Hosenball and Christian Caryl, Dec 1, 2008.

Only weeks before dropping North Korea from an official U.S. blacklist of countries that support terrorism, the Bush administration apparently thwarted the transfer of missile parts (possibly including gyroscopes for guidance systems) from Pyongyang to Iran, U.S. officials tell NEWSWEEK.

NKorea: Endless bargainers

Shultz: Bush Defense Policy Should Stay…Donald Lambro, Nov 18, 2008.

In the wide-ranging interview, Mr. Shultz also said setting a troop-withdrawal date in Iraq is dangerous, and that North Korea’s refusal to let international inspectors conduct tests for nuclear materials is part of a pattern.

“They are endless bargainers. There is no such thing as a firm agreement with them. You make an agreement, you make a compromise and then they immediately break it in some fashion,” Mr. Shultz said.

nKorea: Criticism on nuclear inspections

Bush Criticized On Iraq, N.Korea, (Washington Times)…Sara A. Carter and Nicholas Kralev, Nov 18, 2008.

President Bush’s efforts to resolve two major foreign-policy challenges in his waning days in office have prompted double-barreled criticisms, with leaders here and abroad questioning concessions his administration has made to Iraq and North Korea.

On the North Korean front, the Bush administration is drawing fire for removing North Korea from the U.S. list of terrorist-sponsoring nations without obtaining a firm agreement allowing outside inspectors to take samples from nuclear sites.

Here, public criticism has come from South Korea and Japan over an agreement on outside nuclear inspections in North Korea.

“Washington itself admitted a lot of ambiguities exist,” South Korean Foreign Minister Yu Myung-hwan told the South Korean parliament last week. “Through consultations with other countries, we will ensure that sampling is an essential part of verification.”

Japanese Prime Minister Taro Aso has said that the situation will be “tangled” if the U.S.-North Korea verification deal was only a verbal understanding.

Tokyo’s top envoy to the six-party talks, Akitaka Saiki, said after meeting his Chinese counterpart that Beijing is not ready to call the group’s next meeting because of differences “over how to put the U.S.-North Korea deal on paper,” Japan’s Kyodo News agency reported.

Chief U.S. negotiator Christopher R. Hill returned from a visit to Pyongyang in early October with what the State Department said was an “agreement” to verify a nuclear declaration submitted by the communist state in June.

The department has not released the main document, but only an accompanying “fact sheet” with “U.S.-North Korea understandings on verification.”

The “understandings” outlined specific verification measures, such as “the use of scientific procedures, including sampling and forensic activities,” which would provide relatively reliable clues about the North’s nuclear activities.

North Korea, however, insisted last week that it had made no such promises and rejected the notion of allowing any samples to be removed at the site of its plutonium-making plant at Yongbyon.

“The method of verification will be … confined to field visits,” the official KCNA news agency quoted a Foreign Ministry spokesman as saying. Changing the written agreement is “an act of infringing upon sovereignty little short of seeking a house search.”

Daryl Kimball, executive director of the Arms Control Association, said: “The Japanese, South Koreans and even the Chinese are unhappy about the level of consultations, because now we have ambiguity, and they are frustrated that this situation has emerged.”

Officials and analysts said it is likely that the North Koreans are trying to buy time until President-elect Barack Obama takes office.

But Evans Revere, president of the Korea Society in New York, said North Koreans had been repeatedly warned against making such assumptions.

“If Pyongyang thinks that the next administration is going to give them an ‘easier ride,’ I think they are making a mistake,” Mr. Revere said. “During the North Korean delegation’s recent visit to New York, many people made precisely this point to them.”

nKorea: Info Security

The Information Fortress Known As North Korea(Los Angeles Times)…John M. Glionna, Nov 14, 2008.

Some intelligence is smuggled out by groups and individuals these days, but the main thing outsiders know about the reclusive regime is that they know nothing.

Kim’s approach is, ‘Know thy enemy but don’t let them know us,’ “

These days, much of the information gathering on North Korea comes not from governments but private individuals and human rights groups that have managed to piece together a clandestine network of internal reporters. Some nongovernmental aid organizations return from the country with observations of what goes on there.

“Nobody is too confident about information out of North Korea,” Kang said. “Even the North Korean government isn’t that confident of the statistics they compile.”

“What Kim Jong Il has put together is a counter-intelligence masterpiece,” said Korean historian Andrei Lankov.

“I speak of the CIA’s record in North Korea as the longest running failure in the history of American espionage,” said Donald Gregg, a CIA station chief in South Korea in the 1970s and a former U.S. ambassador to Seoul. “It has always been the toughest of the tough targets. In my day, we truly did not know what was going on there.

“The lines of communication are opening up,” Howard said.

Good Friends publishes regular Internet reports on North Korea. One included such headlines as “Food Shortage Lowers the Attendance of a Munitions Factory in Eunduk County” and “15 People Publicly Executed in Onsung County.”

The group has also broken North Korean news, including an explosion in June involving a petroleum pipeline near Pyongyang.

“Someone threw a cigarette without thinking. There were lots of casualties, even deaths,” Kang said. “South Korean intelligence denied the story. They later came back and said we were right.”

nKorea: Setting conditions that "could inevitabley lead to war ."

North Korea Limits Tests Of Nuclear Site, (New York Times)…Choe Sang-Hun, Nov 12, 2008.

In its first major act of defiance since Senator Barack Obama’s election, North Korea said Wednesday that it would bar international nuclear inspectors from taking soil and nuclear waste samples, which are considered crucial to determining the extent of its weapons program.

North Korea detonated a plutonium-based device in 2006, adding urgency to arduous six-nation talks to halt the North’s nuclear program. As part of the eventual deal, the North made a declaration in June of its nuclear activities. President Bush then said he was prepared to remove North Korea from a list of state sponsors of terrorism, and the North demolished the cooling tower at its Yongbyon nuclear plant.

But it was months before the North was removed from the list, while the United States wrangled with its negotiators over how to verify the North’s nuclear declaration and criticism of the Bush administration — for extracting too few concessions — mounted. Finally, in October, the State Department announced that North Korea had agreed to access “based on mutual consent” to undeclared nuclear sites and “sampling and forensic activities.”

North Korea’s statement on Wednesday contradicted that, and further, warned that if the United States diverged from the joint document “even by one word, it could lead inevitably to war.”

Policy: Iran., nK, Mideast

Obama To Face Big Policy Decisions On Iran, N. Korea And Mideast, (Washington Post)…Glenn Kessler, Nov 8, 2008.

 

…Diplomatic issues rarely begin or end cleanly with a change of administrations, but Bush will be leaving his successor an extensive list of foreign policy processes. The new administration will have to quickly evaluate them and decide whether to continue along Bush’s path, make minor modifications or forge ahead in a different direction.

“Iran’s development of a nuclear weapon, I believe, is unacceptable,” Obama said yesterday. “And we have to mount an international effort to prevent that from happening.”

Obama has not indicated that he will offer any fresh thinking on how to deal with Hamas; at one point during the campaign, he accepted the resignation of an outside adviser who met with Hamas officials as part of his job for an international mediation group. But, during a visit to Israel in July, Obama said he would not wait “until a few years into my term or my second term” to seek a peace deal. This suggests that he may appoint a high-level Middle East peace envoy, freeing his secretary of state to concentrate on other issues.

On North Korea, Obama will inherit a process that is probably in worse shape than what Clinton left for Bush. In a dramatic change in approach during his second term, Bush avidly pursued a deal to end North Korea’s nuclear weapons programs. But the effort nearly collapsed this fall before Bush agreed to remove North Korea from the State Department’s list of state sponsors of terrorism.

Obama supported the decision to delist North Korea. During the campaign, he criticized Bush for taking so long to engage with North Korea, suggesting he would be eager to find ways to keep the disarmament process alive. Li Gun, a senior North Korean official, told reporters in New York on Thursday that “we are ready to deal” with the incoming Obama administration.

nKorea: Future Stability Concerns

Beijing Spurns U.S. Effort To Prepare In Event Of Korean Leader’s Demise, (Wall Street Journal)…Jay Solomon and Jason Leow, November 7, 2008, Pg. 11

The Chinese government has largely rebuffed Bush administration attempts to discuss contingency planning should North Korean dictator Kim Jong Il die or be unable to rule, according to current and former U.S. officials.

The reluctance is partly because Chinese diplomats and military officers fear planning for a post-Kim era could unnerve North Korean leaders and feed a perception the outside world is conspiring against the isolated state, Chinese scholars said.

Washington has been trying to establish some principles to govern a coordinated response by the U.S., South Korea and China. The U.S. has sought assurances the Chinese military won’t cross the Yalu River into North Korea in response to any instability, said the officials. Washington and Seoul also want guarantees that South Korea would take the lead in overseeing any humanitarian operations for the North.

nKorea: Proliferation Concerns

    North Korean Plane Was Grounded At U.S. Request, (Wall Street Journal)…Jay Solomon, Krishna Pokharel and Peter Wonacott, Nov 1, 2008.  India blocked a North Korean plane from delivering cargo to Iran in August, responding to a U.S. request based on fears about the spread of weapons of mass destruction.

    In Asia, Doubts Grow About A Nuclear-Free North Korea, (Miami Herald)…Tim Johnson, McClatchy News Service, Nov 1, 2008. As negotiations over North Korea’s nuclear program stumble along, some scholars and policymakers around Asia now believe that the talks may never lead Pyongyang to cede all of its nuclear weapons.

North/South Korea: Military Talks

Atlanta Journal-Constitution, October 26, 2008

Military Talks Set To Begin

South Korea accepted a North Korean proposal to hold military talks, a Defense Ministry official said Saturday. Ties between the two countries, which are still technically at war, have soured since South Korea’s pro-U.S. president, Lee Myung-bak, took office in February with a pledge to get tough with North Korea. In protest, North Korea suspended reconciliation talks. But South Korea agreed to a meeting Monday, the Defense Ministry official said.