Category: Iraq

Iran: Watch and Wait

At The Tip Of Iran’s Spear, (Washington Post)…David  Ignatius, June 8, 2008; Page B07

Let’s try for a moment to put ourselves in the mind of Brig. Gen. Qassem Soleimani, the commander of the Quds Force of Iran’s Revolutionary Guard. For it is the soft-spoken Soleimani, not Iran’s bombastic president, Mahmoud Ahmadinejad, who plays a decisive role in his nation’s confrontation with the United States.

…  So imagine that you are Qassem Soleimani, commander of a covert Iranian army deployed across the Middle East: You doubt the Bush administration would run the risk of a military strike against Iran, but you can’t be sure. You think America can’t afford to play chicken in an election year, but you can’t be certain of that, either.  So you watch and wait. 

… After a particularly heavy day of shelling, Gen. David Petraeus sent Soleimani a message — “Stop shooting at the Green Zone.” The message was conveyed verbally by Iraqi President Jalal Talabani. The Quds Force commander didn’t react immediately. But the heavy mortar fire on the Green Zone soon tapered off. Iran had flexed its muscles and demonstrated America’s vulnerability, and then opted for a tactical retreat.

Iraq: Positive Trends, Next Steps

Iraq And The Election. (Wall Street Journal)…Editorial, June 6, 2008, Pg. 14

…We are winning in Iraq. Indeed, we can now say with certainty that we will win, as long as we don’t repeat our earlier mistakes and seek to draw down too soon.

For three consecutive weeks, the number of violent incidents have been at their lowest level since the spring of 2004. The number of U.S. combat fatalities last month, 19, was the lowest of the entire war, and Iraqi military and civilian deaths are also sharply down. In the first five months of this year, 4,500 insurgent weapons caches were found, compared to 6,900 for all of 2007. These numbers have sometimes moved in the wrong direction and may do so again, particularly during major combat operations. But the trend is unmistakably positive.

All of this means that it is now possible to foresee not merely a stable Iraq, but also one that can achieve our original strategic goals in the region. The strategist Frederick Kagan – an architect of the surge – makes the analogy to West Germany during the Cold War. A secure and pro-American Iraq would be crucial to expanding U.S. influence in the Arab heart of the Middle East, and especially to containing Iran. A democratic Iraq can serve as an alternative pole of Shiite power in the region, as well as an alternative political model to theocratic, radical Tehran.

We are winning in Iraq. Indeed, we can now say with certainty that we will win, as long as we don’t repeat our earlier mistakes and seek to draw down too soon. This is the improving Iraq that the next U.S. President will inherit, and it is the heart of the Iraq debate Americans should have in November.

Some irony with the earlier posting on ground breaking for the U.S. Institure of Peace to help prevent “external” conflicts. What would be truly ground breaking would be recognition on the need to resolve “internal” conflicts …. 

Iraq: Looking back and forward

Why We Went To Iraq (Wall Street Journal)…Fouad Ajami, June 4, 2008, Pg. 21

“In the end, how we leave and what we leave behind will be more important than how we came.”

America had not been prepared for nation-building in Iraq; 

… As America’s pact with the Arab autocrats had hatched a monster, it was logical and prudent to look for a new way.

… It is not easy to tell people of threats and dangers they have been spared. The war put on notice regimes and conspirators who had harbored dark thoughts about America and who, in the course of the 1990s, were led to believe that terrible deeds against America would go unpunished. A different lesson was taught in Iraq.

… Nowadays, the burden of the war, in blood and treasure, is easy to see, while the gains, subtle and real, are harder to demonstrate. Last month, American casualties in Iraq were at their lowest since 2003. The Sunnis also have broken with al Qaeda, and the Shiite-led government has taken the war to the Mahdi Army:

Al Qaeda: Setbacks, Strategic Defeats

Al Qaeda On The Run (Wall Street Journal)…Editorial, May 31, 2008
Pg. 10

…It is far too soon to declare victory over al Qaeda. Still, Mr. Hayden’s upbeat assessment is encouraging, and it suggests that President Bush’s strategy of taking the battle to the terrorists is making America safer.

CIA Director Michael Hayden painted a far more optimistic picture in an interview yesterday in the Washington Post. “On balance, we are doing pretty well,” he said. “Near strategic defeat of al Qaeda in Iraq. Near strategic defeat for al Qaeda in Saudi Arabia. Significant setbacks for al Qaeda globally – and here I’m going to use the word ‘ideologically’ – as a lot of the Islamic world pushes back on their form of Islam.”

Iraq SysAdmin: Core processess and systems

New Contracts Reflect Continued Presence In Iraq. (Washington Post)…Walter Pincus, June 2, 2008, Pg. 11

The depth of U.S. involvement in Iraq and the difficulty the next president will face in pulling personnel out of the country are illustrated by a handful of new contract proposals made public in May.

… mentors will assist an U.S. military group that previously began to implement what are described as “core processes and systems,” such as procurement, contracting, force development, management and budgeting, and public affairs.

Reference to core processes and systems caught my attention.  Systems typically determine over 94% of  results. 

More info on SysAdmin.

Iraq Casualties – Positive Trends

U.S. Deaths In Iraq Fell Sharply In May. (New York Times)…Andrew E. Kramer, June 2, 2008, Pg. 5

…There have been troughs in American casualty rates before, only to be followed by increases. Just on Sunday, an American soldier was killed by a roadside bomb in Baghdad. The military has instead focused on falling rates of enemy attacks, among other indicators, as a measure of improving security.

Details on Casualties information – Iraq, Afghanistan.  

Iraq: Endgame and Strategic Patience

Gates Says Iraq ‘Endgame’ In Sight (Wall Street Journal (wsj.com))…Agence France-Presse, May 21, 2008

U.S. Defense Secretary Robert Gates said Thursday the “endgame” is now in sight in Iraq but warned of the costly consequences of withdrawing U.S. forces too hastily.

“I fear that frustration over slow progress and dismay over sacrifices already made may result in decisions that are gratifying in the short term but very costly to us in the long term,” he said.

We are now seeing what the end game in Iraq looks like – with our forces drawing down over time, in a series of very complex battlefield rearrangements that slowly cede more responsibility for day-to-day security operations to the Iraqis,” the prepared remarks said.

“It is a slow process – slower than most would wish, myself included,” he said. “But it is necessary if we are to get the endgame right.”

War and Decision

ARTICLE:  Rethinking The Iraq Critics
(U.S. News & World Report)…Michael Barone, May 19, 2008
Pg. 25

…There’s still much to be learned about our decisions, good and bad, in Iraq. But Feith’s book is a step forward, as were those of Sherwood and Churchill 60 years ago.

Today we’re only beginning to learn about what went on behind the scenes on Iraq. One important new source is the recently published War and Decision by Douglas Feith, the No. 3 civilian at the Pentagon from 2001 to 2005.