Author: Tim J. Clark

nKorea and China: Diplomatic Adjustments

China and North Korea in new diplomatic dance. Together, both can gain with new U.S. administration, JoongAng Dailey, Jan 3, 2009

North Korea and China are showing growing signs of cementing stronger political ties this year in what many experts here said is an effort to secure a better position in the upcoming diplomatic dialogue with Barack Obama’s new U.S. administration.

North Korean leader Kim Jong-il and Chinese president Hu Jintao sent celebratory New Year’s messages to each other and declared 2009 as the “year of friendship” to mark the 60th anniversary of the two countries’ diplomatic relations, according to the two countries’ state-run media.

Though Pyongyang has long celebrated the anniversary of the 1961 China-North Korea Treaty on Friendship, Cooperation and Mutual Assistance and China’s military support to the North in 1950 during the Korean War, the 1949 opening of diplomatic ties between the two countries has been largely ignored. But yesterday’s announcement was no sudden surprise, given the two countries have made moves to forge a closer alliance since last year.

Chinese Vice President Xi Jinping, China’s second most powerful official, made an unusual visit to Pyongyang last year, while Kim pledged Pyongyang would “never to breach trust with China,” when another high-profile Beijing official, Wang Jiarui, head of the International Department of the Communist Party of China Central Committee, visited the North last February.

“China has long been prioritizing relations with the South while alienating the North,” said Lee. “But now such a tactic is about to change as Beijing seems to be poised to handle the two Koreas equally.”

Risk and Financial Collapse

On the issue of objective vs subjective information, you will always need the right balance of both.  I addressed a similar topic on the subject of militar’s  Effect Based Operational concept.

Did managers of risk outsmart themselves? Joe Nocera, New York Times magazine, Jan 4, 2009.

The story that I have to tell is marked all the way through by a persistent tension between those who assert that the best decisions are based on quantification and numbers, determined by the patterns of the past, and those who base their decisions on more subjective degrees of belief about the uncertain future. This is a controversy that has never been resolved.’

— FROM THE INTRODUCTION TO ‘‘AGAINST THE GODS: THE REMARKABLE STORY OF RISK,’’ BY PETER L. BERNSTEIN

Failed War on drugs; Preventing Crime

Interesting post on options to reduce crime in America.

POST: Gangs rule over the most crime-free America in decades, Thomas P.M. Barnett on January 3, , 2009

CRIME: “The War on Gangs: Inside the feds’ strategy to get hit men and enforcers off the streets,” by Alex Kingsbury, U.S. News & World Report, 15 December 2008.

Interesting story on how big-city PDs fight gangs: the gangs’ weakness for weapons is their Achilles’ heel.

But here’s what caught my eye: “Violent crime nationwide is hovering near its lowest levels in 30 years. But that’s not the case in all of America’s cities, where street gangs still account for an alarming share of death and destruction.”

Of course, even there, most of the death you’re talking about is inter-gang.

What drives all this competitive destruction? Our failed war on drugs.

By not medicalizing the problem and decriminalizing use, we provide black market opportunities for criminals.

Frankly, I’d rather see Big Pharma clean up.

Supporting Wounded Soldiers

Government Alone Can’t Do Right By Our Wounded Soldiers (Wall Street Journal)…Jonathan Gurwitz, Jan 3, 2009.

You can’t earmark bravery or budget patriotism.

Private donors are already doing a lot to help recuperating soldiers in San Antonio. In recent years, two “Fisher Houses” were built near Brooke Army Medical Center by the Fisher House Foundation to give family members of injured soldiers a place to stay. And across the street from Mrs. Markelz’s facility is the gleaming new Center for the Intrepid, a state-of-the-art amputee and burn-victim rehabilitation facility built with private funds and donated to the Army.

Private donors are already doing a lot to help recuperating soldiers in San Antonio. In recent years, two “Fisher Houses” were built near Brooke Army Medical Center by the Fisher House Foundation to give family members of injured soldiers a place to stay. And across the street from Mrs. Markelz’s facility is the gleaming new Center for the Intrepid, a state-of-the-art amputee and burn-victim rehabilitation facility built with private funds and donated to the Army.

“This is not about philanthropy, this is not a gift. It’s an obligation. It’s a partial repayment on a debt we owe these guys.”

We live in an era of earmarks and ever-expanding bailouts where there is seemingly little that the government is incapable of doing. But you cannot earmark bravery or budget patriotism. And perhaps that is the best justification for what citizens — and not government alone — should do to aid those who have volunteered to defend their freedoms.

Israel, Gaza, Ground Invasion?

Israeli Ground-Invasion Threat Looms In Gaza, (Wall Street Journal)…Margaret Coker, Jan 3, 2009

…Israel has been massing artillery, armor and infantry on Gaza’s borders since the start of the offensive last week, threatening a significant ground operation. But politicians are wary about starting a potentially lengthy and bloody invasion with national elections just over a month away.

New Space Race? Pentagon-NASA Synergy

Obama Moves To Counter China With Pentagon-NASA Link, Bloomberg.com)…Demian McLean, Bloomberg News, Jan 2, 2009

President-elect Barack Obama will probably tear down long-standing barriers between the U.S.’s civilian and military space programs to speed up a mission to the moon amid the prospect of a new space race with China.

The potential change comes as Pentagon concerns are rising over China’s space ambitions because of what is perceived as an eventual threat to U.S. defense satellites, the lofty battlefield eyes of the military.

Afghanistan: Soviet Perspective on Next Steps

Nato Making Same Mistakes As Soviet Army, Says Zamir Kabulov, By Tony Halpin and Jeremy Page, January 3, 2009

The Russian Ambassador to Afghanistan, Zamir Kabulov, once told his British counterpart that Nato was making all the same mistakes that the Soviet army did in the country in the 1980s.

“The Soviet Union tried to bring socialism to Afghanistan. Unfortunately, you are trying to do the same with democracy,” Mr Kabulov, who served in Kabul in the 1980s, told The Times.

“We have to ask what the Afghans want,” he told The Times. “What have the people of Afghanistan received from the coalition? They lived very poorly before and they still live poorly, but sometimes they also get bombed by mistake.”

… The Taleban is an idea and this idea has support among the local population because many problems were resolved when they ruled. Their methods were awful from a European perspective but they got results.”

“If the US and Britain can win the friendship of the local people, then they won’t help the Taleban. But if you bomb them and treat them badly, they will try to kill you in every way possible. I saw so many horrible things there, the pressure was just terrible.”

“The West should correct its mistakes and forget the idea that they can win the war,” he said. “Instead of bringing in more troops, they should focus on strengthening the Afghan army and police. And if you’re not going to stay here forever, you have to build the economy.”

Secdef Gates: Person of the Year

Person Of The Year: Robert M. Gates, (Aviation Week & Space Technology)…Michael Bruno, Amy Butler and John M. Doyle, Jan 5, 2009

…Gates has focused on the simple idea, albeit a complex task, of getting the job done. This grounded purpose has been long needed in a Washington polarized by political disagreement over the use of military power abroad and the struggle to reinvigorate strained alliances. Gates’s pragmatism is rippling through many facets of U.S. policy and helping to repair damaged relations with Congress, the State Dept. and the global aerospace industry. This is why he is Aviation Week’s Person of the Year for 2008.

Israel, Gaza, Seduction of Force

Opinion, Israel, Hamas and the seduction of blind force. By Gershom Gorenberg
December 30, 2008

Before Israel and Hamas chose blunt instruments, each side had better choices.

For angry people, force is seductive. 

Before they chose blunt instruments, each side had better choices. In November, Egypt proposed a compromise to end the Palestinian political split between Hamas and Fatah, Gaza and the West Bank. The deal would have created a coalition government under Palestinian President (and Fatah leader) Mahmoud Abbas, Israel’s chosen negotiating partner, for several months before new elections in both parts of Palestinian territory. With Gaza part of Abbas’ fiefdom, Israel politically would have had a harder time maintaining the blockade. But Hamas rejected the deal, apparently because of internal divisions.

Now the diplomatic choices are much more difficult. Captured by fury, afraid most of all of appearing weak and inviting worse aggression, each side is unable to back off. The flood has been released.

Gershom Gorenberg is the author of “The Accidental Empire: Israel and the Birth of the Settlements, 1967-1977” (Times Books). He blogs at southjerusalem.com.